Liberals lead in 3 federal by-elections

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Conservatives to take Macleod

TORONTO, JUNE 29th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ the evening before election day among voters in the four federal ridings in which by-elections will be held June 30, the Liberals are leading by clear margins in three, while the Conservatives have a strong lead in a fourth.


Among the 446 voters polled in Trinity-Spadina, Liberal candidate Adam Vaughan's considerable lead has declined to just more than half today (45%), compared to more than half ten days ago (June 19 - 52%). This compares to just more than a third for NDP candidate, Joe Cressy (35% now, 34% June 19). The Conservative (11%) and Green candidates (9%) attract about a tenth each. In this riding, more than one third of past NDP voters (2011) will vote for the Liberals this time (37%), while just more than half will vote NDP again (59%). Adam Vaughan attracts more female voters (50%) than male voters (40%), while Joe Cressy has a gender balance (36% and 35%, respectively).


The 446 voters polled in Scarborough-Agincourt favour Liberal candidate Arnold Chan by eleven points over Conservative candidate Trevor Ellis (48% to 37%) and this represents a slight tightening of the race since we last polled  (52% to 36%, respectively). The NDP candidate will take a tenth of the vote (10%) while the Greens will take less (4%).


Among the 406 voters polled in the riding of Macleod, more than half will vote for the Conservative candidate, John Barlow (54%), compared to just one eighth who will vote for his Liberal or Green counterparts (16% each). Very few will vote NDP (4%). This represents a slight tightening of Barlow's considerable lead since we last polled (June 19, Conservative - 61%, Liberal - 11%, NDP - 11%, Green 9%). One tenth will vote for another party now (10%) or then (9%).

Fort McMurray-Athabasca

In Fort McMurray-Athabasca, where 326 voters were polled, the Liberals have a clear lead over the Conservatives (41% to 33%), while the NDP (13%), Greens (5%) and other parties (8%) do not contend. This is in contrast to previous waves of polling (unpublished due to small sample sizes) in which the Conservatives had the lead.

If the unimaginable happens, and the Liberals pull out a win in Fort McMurray, they will have kept one, taken one from the government and taken one from the opposition. Not a bad record for four little by-elections. It appears the NDP aren't players in this round," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.