Adam Vaughan clear leader in Trinity-Spadina

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Adam Vaughan clear leader in Trinity-Spadina

Joe Cressy defeats Christine Innes, other candidates

TORONTO APRIL 22nd, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 517 voters in the federal riding of Trinity-Spadina in downtown Toronto, where a by-election will be held to replace departed MP Olivia Chow, Liberal hopeful Adam Vaughan has a convincing lead over the nominated NDP candidate, Joe Cressy, but Liberal prospects Christine Tabbert and Ryan Davey do not do as well. Christine Innes, a previous candidate who has been forbidden by the Liberal Party from seeking the nomination, does poorly against Cressy.

Vaughan with 20 point lead over Cressy

In a match-up between Adam Vaughan and Joe Cressy, Vaughan wins with one half the vote (52%) to 3-in-10 for Cressy (31%). The names of the previous federal candidates were used as placeholders, and neither scores well (Gin Siow, Conservative - 14%, Rachel Barney, Green - 2%).

Cressy defeats Tabbert

Joe Cressy takes close to half the vote (45%) when matched with Liberal prospect Christine Tabbert (33%). Siow (15%) and Barney (5%) aren't particularly competitive.

Cressy tops Davey

Liberal hopeful Ryan Davey fares about as well as Tabbert, taking just less than 3-in-10 votes (28%) to close to half for Cressy (46%).

Innes falls to Cressy

In a match-up with Christine Innes, husband of former riding MP Tony Ianno, Cressy takes the same proportion of the vote (45%), and Innes gets 3-in-10, like Tabbert and Davey (28%).

Awareness, approval high for Vaughan

Almost all voters in the riding know who Adam Vaughan is (84%), while just more than half are aware of Joe Cressy (58%). They both share very high approval ratings, however (74% and 77%, respectively). Christine Innes, on the other hand, while she is well-known (74%), sees the approval of fewer than half (44%). Very few are aware of Christine Tabbert (10%) or Ryan Davey (9%), but the few who know of them think well of them (63% approval each).

 “In politics, if you can't be the incumbent, the next best thing is to be famous. Adam Vaughan has deep roots in this city and as a Liberal, which some forget, and he had years of local exposure on TV. Joe Cressy is well thought of by those who know him, but not enough people know of him to counter the personal comfort level most people in the riding have with Vaughan," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.