Liberals with commanding lead in Quebec

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Liberals with commanding lead in Quebec

Broad majority seen; PQ tied with CAQ

TORONTO APRIL 6th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1251 decided Quebec voters on April 3, close to half will vote Liberal (44%), compared to just a quarter who will vote for the PQ (24%) or CAQ (23%). This represents an increase in share for the Liberals since Monday, March 31 (from 41%), accompanied by a sharp decrease for the PQ (from 29%). The CAQ is well up (from 19% to 23%). One twentieth or fewer will vote for QS (6%), the Greens (2%) or any other party (1%).

Francophone voters are more likely to vote Liberal (35%) than PQ (27%), and a similar proportion will vote CAQ (28%). The non-Francophone vote belongs almost completely to the Liberals (86%), compared to very few for the PQ (6%), CAQ (2%), Green (3%) or QS (2%). Of those who voted CAQ in the past, 3-in-10 will vote Liberal this time (29%), while just less than a tenth will vote PQ (8%).

Liberals to take 22 seat majority

If these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the Liberals would take a dominant 85 seats, or 22 more than needed for a majority, up from 65 on Monday, and the PQ would take just 26 seats, down from 51 at the beginning of the week. CAQ would take 12 seats, up from 7 on Monday, and QS would take 2 seats.

Francois Legault's approvals high

Francois Legault significantly outperforms his party, with approval from almost 6-in-10 voters (57%), and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +30. Philippe Couillard has the approval of almost half (45%) which means he performs just as well as his party. His net rating is +4. Pauline Marois has the steady approval of 3-in-10 (31%), but her net is a dismal -34.

Few want a referendum

Just one fifth want a referendum on independence (21%), and fully three quarters do not (75%). Among Francophones, just one quarter want to go through the referendum process again (23%). Among PQ voters, 6-in-10 wish to put the independence question to the people (60%).

One half believe PQ will hold referendum if elected

One half of voters expect the PQ to hold a referendum if they form the government (50%), whereas 4-in-10 do not expect this (41%). Three quarters of non-Francophones (76%) and Liberal voters (79%) think a referendum will be held, whereas few PQ supporters think this (8%).

We are seeing a rare sight, a political party in freefall. From front-runners, with expectations of a majority, the PQ has transitioned through this campaign into the opposition-in-waiting, possibly the third party, with nothing but negative momentum. Their legacy policy, a referendum, is rejected by the vast majority," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.