Liberals lead in 2 by-elections, Conservatives in a 3rd

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NDP shut out

TORONTO, MAY 15th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion among voters in three ridings where federal by-elections will be held June 30, the federal Liberals lead in two and the Conservatives in one, and the NDP do not lead in any.


Among the 625 voters polled in this riding, more than half will vote for the Liberal candidate, former city councillor and TV personality, Adam Vaughan (54%), while 3-in-10 will vote for the NDP standard-bearer, Joe Cressy (31%). Just more than one tenth will vote Conservative (Ben Sharma - 13%), and very few will vote Green (2% - Rachel Barney's name was used) or for any other party. Vaughan is especially popular among the youngest (65%), while Cressy does well among females (35%) in the Gen X age bracket (45 to 54 - 35%). Of note, close to one half of past NDP voters will cast a ballot for the Liberals this time (44%), as will one quarter of past Conservative supporters (24%).


Among the 571 voters sampled in Scarborough-Agincourt, close to one half will vote the Liberal candidate, Arnold Chan (46%), while about 4-in-10 will support the Conservative candidates, Trevor Ellis (38%).  Few will support the NDP (9%), the Greens (2%) or any other party (5%). Close to 4-in-10 past NDP voters (38%) and one seventh of Conservative voters (15%) will vote for the Liberals this time. In fact, just 3-in-10 past NDP voters will vote for the party this time (30%).


Among the 448 Macleod voters sampled, as many as two thirds will vote for the Conservative candidate, John Barlow (62%), while one seventh will vote for the Liberal, Dustin Fuller (15%). Few will vote NDP or Green (6% each) or for any other party (11%). About one third of past Liberals will vote Conservative this time (35%), and a similar proportion of past New Democrats will vote Liberal (37%).

Fort McMurray-Athabasca

Polling was conducted in this riding but an adequate sample for analysis was not collected.


This looks like a pick-up for the Liberals from the NDP in Trinity-Spadina, which would be return to this riding's roots. In the other two ridings where we polled, the status quo seems to be the current situation, and we don't expect serious upsets. The big question is what is going on in Fort McMurray, but we can't answer that yet," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.