Liberals widen lead in Ontario campaign

| Filed under: Ontario

Majority government in the cards

TORONTO MAY 20th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1136 Ontario voters on the evening after the May long weekend, just more than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (41%), compared to one third who will vote Progressive Conservative (34%). This represents a widening of the lead for the Liberals since we polled last week (May 13 - Liberals 38%, PCs 35%). The NDP are supported by one fifth of voters (20%), and few will vote Green (4%) or for any other party (1%). The Liberal vote is common to females (46%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 48%) and the Toronto 416 area code (51%). The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (40%), males (40%), lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 42%) and in eastern Ontario (41%). The New Democrat vote is common to Generation Y (35 to 44 - 29%), the least wealthy (34%) and in southwestern (26%) and northern Ontario (47%). Of note, one third of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (32%), while one tenth of past Liberals will vote PC (13%) or NDP (11%) this time.

Wide Liberal majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take an 8 seat majority of 63 seats, to 31 for the PCs. The NDP would take just 13 seats.

Liberals are second choice of New Democrats

Among NDP voters, 4-in-10 would pick the Liberals second (40%), while more than half of Liberal voters would pick the NDP second (57%). Few would select the PCs second (17% and 11%, respectively). The Green Party is a popular second choice for New Democrats, as it is for PCs (24% each).

Leaders' favourables stable, Wynne most popular

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of close to 4-in-10 (38%) and this is stable since last week (38%). Her net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is -8, up from -12 last week. Andrea Horwath has the approval of just more than a third, this week and last (35% each), and her net is -5, up slightly from -8 last week. Tim Hudak has approval from one quarter (25%, from 23% last week), and his net is an abysmal -34, similar to the -36 registered last week.

Kathleen Wynne increases her lead as best Premier

Just more than one third now thinks Kathleen Wynne will make the best Premier (34%, up slightly from 32% last week and 28% the week before), while fewer than a quarter pick Tim Hudak in this role (22%, stable from last week) and even fewer pick Andrea Horwath (17%, up slightly from 15%). Close to one fifth think none is right for the job (17%), and one tenth don't have an opinion (10%).

May Long Weekend gives voters time to reflect

It may be that the May long weekend gave Ontario families a chance to meet and reflect on the upcoming election, firming up their intentions while they talked. There certainly appears to be a new wind in Kathleen Wynne's sails," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.