Majority thinks Canada in a recession

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Majority thinks Canada in a recession

Oil price crash seen as cause

TORONTO July 21st, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1208 Canadian voters, close to 6-in-10 see the country as being in a recession (58%), while 1-in-3 do not (29%) and one tenth don’t have an opinion (13%). Fear of a recession is especially common to the youngest (under 45 - 62%), males rather than females (62% to 54%), higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 64%), in Alberta (65%), among New Democrat voters (70%) but not among Conservatives (37%).

Most think oil price crash led to recession

The plurality of those who think we are in recession blame it on the crash in oil prices (28%), followed by one quarter who blame global circumstances in general (24%). Canadian government monetary policy is also blamed (17%), and some think the recession of 2009 never ended (14%). Few blame the recession on the situation in Greece (1%). Conservative voters are especially likely to blame the crash in oil prices (38%) or the global downturn (30%), whereas fewer Liberals (26% and 23%, respectively) or New Democrats (29% and 23%) do. Liberals (20%) and New Democrats (22%) are especially likely to blame government monetary policies, while Conservatives are not (3%).

"While the official marker of a recession is two quarters of negative growth, recessions really start when people believe they do, which seems to have occurred already. While government supporters are eager to pin the blame on a general global economic downturn, opposition parties are much more eager to lay blame at the government’s feet, either because of their poor monetary policy or their single minded focus on Canada’s energy sector," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.