Federal NDP leads by 7 points

| Filed under: National

Federal NDP leads by 7 points

Conservatives fall back, tied with Liberals

TORONTO July 14th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1251 Canadian voters, more than one third will vote for the New Democrats if the federal election were held today (34%), while just more than one quarter would vote for either the Conservatives or the Liberals (27% each). This 7 point lead stands in comparison to last week, when the NDP and the Conservatives were tied (July 8 - 32% each) while a quarter would vote Liberal (26%). In other words, after briefly flirting with parity with the NDP, the Conservatives have dropped back to a tie for second place with the Liberals. One twentieth will vote Green (5%), and slightly more will vote Bloc Quebecois (7%), but very few will vote for any other party (1%).

In Ontario, where elections are won, the Liberals have a slight lead (34%) over the Conservatives (31%) and the NDP (30%). In Quebec, the NDP is firmly in the lead (34%) while the Bloc (25%) and the Liberals (22%) strive for second place. In Atlantic Canada, formerly the Liberal stronghold, The NDP (47%) are now dominant, and the Liberals trail (30%). The Conservatives dominate in Alberta (47%) but the NDP is second (29%). In the prairies, the Liberals (39%) and Conservatives (40%) are tied (caution: small base size). The NDP dominates BC (46%), while the Conservatives 24%) and Liberals (20%) duel for second.

Of note, 3-in-10 past Liberal voters will vote NDP this time around (29%), as will about half this proportion of past Conservative voters (14%). About one sixth of past Conservatives will vote Liberal this time (15%) as will the same proportion of past New Democrats (16%). The NDP retain the largest share of their past vote (72%), followed by the Conservatives (68%) then the Liberals (60%). Very few voters switch to the Conservatives.

NDP minority in the cards

If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would capture a healthy minority of 132 seats, 38 short of a majority. The Conservatives would take 107 seats, the Liberals 79, the Bloquistes would claim a four month high of 19 seats and the Green Party would keep their single seat.

Harper’s favourables down sharply, others steady

The Prime Minister has the approval of just more than one quarter of voters (27%), down sharply from last week (July 8 - 35%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -35, well down from -24 last week. Tom Mulcair continues to have the approval of just less than half the voters (47%) and his net is a very favourable +23. This is steady since last week, when his approval was 48% and his net +24. Justin Trudeau has also seen his approval stay stable at 38% with a neutral net of -3 (June 8 - 41% and 0).

NDP now expected to win the election

Voters now put the NDP in the lead (for the first time) as the party they expect to win the election (28%), with the Conservatives (27%) and Liberals (24%) close behind.

Mulcair clearly seen as the best PM of the bunch

Tom Mulcair leads the best Prime Minister measure decisively (31%), and Harper and Trudeau are tied for second (22% and 21%, respectively). One tenth think none of the candidates can do the job (10%) and few select Elizabeth May (5%) or Gilles Duceppe (4%). One fifth of Liberal voters think Mulcair would make the best PM (21%).

"It appears the bump in popularity the Prime Minister enjoyed last week was short-lived, and we’ve now arrived where this trend was apparently going anyway, with the NDP in sole possession of first place. However, when the electorate is as volatile as Canadians appear to be now, polling can become an exercise in looking over your shoulder, and events change before you finish measuring them," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.