UCP headed for narrow victory

| Filed under: Alberta
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UCP headed for narrow victory

NDP in close second on eve of election

Toronto, May 28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1000 Alberta voters ahead of the May 29th provincial election, half (50.4%) of those who are decided or leaning are likely to vote for the United Conservative Party while the majority of others (44.3%) are likely to vote for the NDP. A small minority support the Green Party (1.6%) or other parties (3.7%).


UCP majority – just barely

We project 45 seats for the UCP and 42 seats for the NDP. Either party must win at least 44 seats to form a majority government.

“Danielle Smith may lead the UCP to victory, but the NDP are not out of the running yet,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "Election day turnout will be crucial in deciding this race.”

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1000 randomly selected Alberta residents over the age of 18, 68.6% by cellphone and 31.4% on landlines. The poll was conducted on May 28th, 2023. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/