NDP maintains lead in Ontario

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NDP maintains lead in Ontario

Strong NDP minority government if vote held today

TORONTO July 8th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 678 Ontario voters, more than one third will vote NDP if a provincial election were held today (35%), while just fewer would vote PC (32%). The provincial Liberals would be the choice of just more than one quarter (26%). These findings represent relative stability since the last time we polled Ontario (May 12, NDP - 36%, PC - 33%, Liberal - 24%).

NDP minority seen

If these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture a minority of 45, 9 fewer than required for a majority, while the PCs would take 35 seats and the Liberals 27.

Horwath most popular leader, Patrick Brown least popular

Andrea Horwath has the approval of close to 4-in-10 voters (38%), while her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a neutral to positive +6. About 3-in-10 approve of the Premier (29%) and her net is a very negative -31. While just one fifth approve of Patrick Brown (19%), most don’t know him (53%) so his net score is a relatively modest -10.

Three leaders tied for best premier

In a reflection of our findings in May, all three party leaders are tied for who would make the best premier, with Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown at just over one fifth (21% each) and Andrea Horwath at one fifth (20%). A similar proportion think none of them is up to the task (23%), and just fewer don’t have an opinion (15%).

Whether this a reflection of the NDP victory in Alberta, or Tom Mulcair’s new prominence as the darling of the national electorate, it is clear the NDP have established a winning beach head in Ontario, and it isn’t going away soon," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.