Federal Election Remains a Neck and Neck Race

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Liberal Minority Government Likely

Toronto, September 19, 2021- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1181 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (33%) say they support the Conservatives, while slightly less (29.4%) say they support the Liberals.

16.2% say they support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 10.3% say they support the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), 6.9% say they support the Bloc Quebecois (BQ), and 2.9% say they support the Greens. We expect a minority Liberal parliament with the Liberals winning 143 seats, the Conservatives winning 138 seats, the NDP winning 29 seats, the BQ winning 26 seats, the Greens winning 2 seats, and the PPC winning zero seats.

Regional Differences

There are significant regional differences across the country in political party support. In the Atlantic, the Liberals have taken a strong lead over the Conservatives, with support being at 39.3% and 29%, respectively. This is followed by the NDP (20%), and the PPC (11%).

In Quebec, the Liberals have established a slight lead, with 32.1% of the vote. The BQ are not far behind with 29.4% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives (19.9%), NDP (9.4%), PPC (5.7%), other parties (2.2%), and Green (1.3%).

In the crucial battleground of Ontario, the Conservatives have a lead with 35.1% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (32.5%), NDP (17.8%), PPC (11.3%), and Green (2.1%).

In Manitoba / Saskatchewan, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead of 38% support, followed by the NDP (22.2%), Liberals (20%), PPC (15.9%), and Green (3.6%).

The Conservative party also has a stronghold in Alberta (54.4%), followed by the PPC (15.3%), NDP (13%), Liberals (11.6%), other parties (3.3%), and Green (2.4%).

In British Columbia, Liberals enjoy a lead of 31.1%, followed by the Conservatives (29.6%), NDP (21.1%), Green (9.5%), PPC (7.5%), and other parties (1.2%).

Gender Differences

Male respondents were significantly more likely to support right-leaning parties than female respondents. Most notably, 40.8% of male respondents said they would vote for the Conservative party, while only 26.1% of female respondents said they would support the Conservatives. Additionally, 11.5% of males said they would vote for the PPC, as opposed to 8.4% of females.

Likewise, the NDP enjoy significantly more support from female voters than males, with 21.3% of female voters saying they would vote for the NDP, as opposed to 9.7% of males. The Liberals also enjoy slightly more support from women, with 32.9% of female voters supporting the Liberals, as opposed to 26.8% of male voters.

The Rise of the PPC

A notable change over this election cycle is the sharp rise in support for the PPC. On August 15th, 2021, when the first Forum Poll of this election cycle was conducted, around 5% of the public supported the PPC, which was similar to the 4% support the party had during the 2019 federal election. A subsequent September 10th, 2021 Forum Poll found that around 9% of voters support the PPC. This is consistent with the September 19th, 2021 Forum Poll, which found that support for the PPC now hovers around 10.3%. However, despite this sharp increase in support, the PPC are not projected to win any seats, given support for the party is widely dispersed, and not strong enough in any one riding for a PPC candidate to win.


The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1181 randomly selected eligible voters across Canada. The poll was conducted on Sept 19th, 2021. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at: www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.

Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/