Majority calls for coalition if Conservative minority elected

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Majority calls for coalition if Conservative minority elected

Three quarters of NDP, Liberal voters agree

TORONTO June 16th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1281 Canadian voters, the majority (53%) would support a Liberal/NDP coalition government if the next election resulted in a Conservative minority. Among Liberal and NDP voters, as many as three quarters call for a cooperative government of the centre/left (75% and 76%, respectively) and even one tenth of Conservative voters agree (12%). A coalition government is especially popular among the wealthiest (59%), the youngest (56%) and the best educated (65%).

Should the election result in a Liberal minority or an NDP minority, there is much less interest in coalition governments between the remaining two parties (NDP/Conservative coalition - 23%, Liberal/Conservative coalition - 22%). A Conservative/NDP coalition attracts a third of Conservatives (35%) and a quarter of New Democrats (25%). A Liberal/Conservative coalition attracts almost 4-in-10 Conservatives (39%) and almost 3-in-10 Liberals (28%). Interest in an NDP/Liberal coalition has increased in the past two weeks, while interest in the other two pairings has declined.

Majority sees a coalition as an appropriate form of government in a minority

More than a half of voters continue to view coalition governments as appropriate if no party has a majority (58%), and this hasn’t changed in several weeks (57% and 58% previously). Conservatives (33%) are far less likely to see coalitions as legitimate than either Liberals (72%) or New Democrats (75%). Coalitions are especially well-accepted in the Atlantic (63%), the prairies (61%) and in BC (62%).

"The key here is which side of the minority you end up on. The Liberal and New Democrat voters both find coalition appropriate and want to enter into one with each other in the event of a Conservative minority, but Conservatives are wary of cooperative government, perhaps because they know they are no one’s preferred partner. Our previous polling has shown that many Conservative voters actually view coalition as illegitimate," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.