Ontario Liberals Tumble Again

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Ontario Liberals Tumble Again

NDP to serve as opposition in massive Conservative Government

Toronto, June 16th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1003 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, more than 4-in-10 (44%) say they would support the Progressive Conservatives. Fewer than a quarter (23%) say they would support the Liberals, with the same proportion (24%) saying they would support the NDP. (7%) say they support the Green Party, and (2%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 55-64 (50%), males (52%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (56%) or $80,000-$100,000 (55%), living in Southwestern Ontario (52%), and the least educated (50%) or with some college or university (49%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 34 or younger (24%), 35-44 (25%), 65+ (25%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (30%), living in Toronto (31%), and with a post-graduate degree (34%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (27%), 35-44 (28%), or 45-54 (27%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (35%), living in Northeastern Ontario (33%), and with a college/university (27%) or post-graduate (25%) degree.

Conservatives expand majority, Liberals crash

If an election were held today, the Progressive Conservatives would likely secure 87 seats, more than needed for a majority in the 122-seat legislature.

The NDP would form the official opposition with 26 seats. The Liberals would secure 9 seats, one seat more than the minimum needed to form an official party in the Ontario Legislature. The Liberals’ drop in support in Toronto and the GTA is largely the contributing factor to their overall projected loss of seats.

Horwath popular; Wynne and Brown, not so much

Kathleen Wynne’s approval is (15%), and her disapproval (74%) is almost three-quarters. (11%) do not know whether to approve or disapprove of the Premier’s performance. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove is -59.)

Patrick Brown’s approval is more than a quarter (29%), and his disapproval is just under a third (30%). The majority, (41%), don’t know enough about Patrick Brown to offer an opinion. His net favourable score is -1.

Andrea Horwath is still the most popular of the three leaders with an approval of almost four in ten (38%), with disapproval of just over a quarter (27%). 

4-in-10 (36%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath. Her net favourable score is +11.

Brown best premier, Andrea Horwath just behind

More than a third (36%) believe that Patrick Brown would make the best Premier of Ontario, with Andrea Horwath (20%) well behind. Only (13%) believe Kathleen Wynne would be the best premier. A quarter (23%) say none of the above would make the best premier, with (7%) saying they don’t know.


“The post budget bump that the Liberals saw in May is now completely gone and they see themselves likely serving as third party in the Ontario Legislature, well behind even the second place NDP,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.