Federal Conservatives pull into the lead

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Stephen Harper (Flickr)

Federal Conservatives pull into the lead

Minority government seen

TORONTO April 23rd, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 977 Canadian voters, just more than a third will vote Conservative (35%) if a federal election occurred today, while just more than 3-in-10 will vote for the Liberals (31%). This represents a lead for the Conservatives at this sample size, after several months of being tied in our polling. This does not, however, represent a strong shift from findings noted last week (April 16, Conservatives - 33%, Liberals - 35%).

The New Democrats have the support of just less than a quarter (23%), stable from last week (22%). Few will vote for the Greens (6%), the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or for any other party (1%).

In vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 39% to 34%, while the New Democrats claim one fifth support (21%). In Quebec, the three leading parties are essentially tied (Conservatives - 26%, Liberals - 24%, NDP - 26%) and the Bloc attracts about one fifth of the votes (19%). Liberals are dominant in Atlantic Canada (42%) and Conservatives lead in Alberta (46%). Liberals have a slight lead (34%) in BC over the Conservatives (31%). Of note, one quarter of those who voted NDP in 2011 will vote Liberal in the next election (26%).

Conservative minority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 338 seat House, the Conservatives would take a weak minority of 146 seats, 24 fewer than needed for a majority, while the Liberals would take 101 seats, the NDP 77 and the Bloc 12. The Greens would keep their single seat, and André Arthur, if he runs as an independent, would also be elected. One week ago, the seat projections were 142, 137, 58 and one seat for the Greens, so the NDP is benefiting from a decline in Liberal popularity.

"It is no secret the Liberals are finally losing the momentum that has carried them through the past two years since Justin was elected leader. Here we see the first clear indications that the NDP are picking up the support the Liberals are losing. In our last wave of polling, we found the majority prefer a coalition in the event of a Conservative minority government, and they may have their chance after this election is over, " said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.