CC Image courtesy of The City of Toronto: http://bit.ly/2nT86Lv
Ford Closing the Gap
on Tory
Mayor’s approval trends downward
Toronto, April 6th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 840
Toronto voters, amongst those decided and leaning, the plurality support John
Tory (44%) over Doug Ford (33%), who is undeclared as a candidate, but the gap
between them continues to narrow.
Tory’s lead over
Ford is now 11 points, and it’s down from 16 in March. (29%: Nov 8; 19%: Feb 6;
16%: Mar 10).
Over 2-in-10 (22%)
prefer someone else to either Ford or Tory.
Respondents most
likely to support Tory include those aged 55-64 (55%) or 65+ (56%), females
(47%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (57%) or the most wealthy (54%), with a
post-graduate degree (50%), that drive to work (44%), and supporting the
Liberals (58%).
Respondents most
likely to support Doug Ford include those aged 34 or younger (38%), the least
wealthy (51%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (54%), the least educated (62%), and
supporting the Progressive Conservatives (51%).
When looking at smaller
subsamples divided by former city of Toronto municipalities we see the
following community breakdowns.
In the former City
of Toronto, John Tory (45%) leads over Doug Ford (23%), with (30%) saying they
prefer someone else.
In East York, John
Tory (53%) leads over Doug Ford (25%), with (22%) saying they prefer someone
else.
In North York, John Tory (41%) leads over Doug Ford (35%), with (25%) saying they
prefer someone else.
In Etobicoke, John Tory (42%) and Doug Ford (40%) are tied, with (17%) saying they
prefer someone else.
In York, John
Tory (43%) and Doug Ford (42%) are tied, with (15%) saying they prefer someone
else.
In Scarborough, John Tory (45%) leads over Doug Ford (38%), with (18%) saying they
prefer someone else.
Tory’s approval down
John Tory’s approval
has dipped below fifty-percent, with (47%) responding they approve of the
Mayor’s performance, down 4 points since March (51%: March 10), with (34%)
responding they disapprove, up four points since March (30%: March 10) and
(19%) saying they don’t know.
Respondents most
likely to approve of the Mayor’s performance include those aged 65+ (57%),
females (50%), the most wealthy (59%), with a post-graduate degree (56%), and
supporting the Ontario Liberals (58%).
Respondents most
likely to disapprove of the Mayor’s performance include those aged 34 or
younger (42%), males (41%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (46%), the least educated
(41%), and supporting the Progressive Conservatives (41%) or NDP (40%).
“John Tory has a
strong lead over Doug Ford, but this lead is eroding month-over-month,” said Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
