Major Reset in Federal Vote Share

| Filed under: National, Social Issues

Major Reset in Federal Vote Share

Liberals down, Conservatives up, approvals too

TORONTO December 8th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1304 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives, measured at 23 points last month on the day after Donald Trump’s election, narrowed to just 8 points today.

If an election were held today, just more than 4-in-10 would vote Liberal (42%), compared to more than half last month (November 10 - 51%). During the same period, the Conservative vote share has increased from somewhat more than a quarter (28%) to more than a third now (34%), leaving the two parties 8 points apart. No change has occurred with respect to the New Democrat vote (November 10 - 11%, now - 12%). Few will vote Green (6%) or for the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or for another party (1%).

The Liberals no longer lead in every region but Alberta, and they are behind in the prairies and tied in BC. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still lead commandingly (66%) compared to the Conservatives (23%). In Quebec, the Liberals lead by less (45%), while the rest of the vote is split between the Conservatives (18%) and Bloquistes (19%). The NDP has a tenth share (13%). In vote-rich Ontario, where elections are won and lost, The Liberals (41%) are virtually tied with the Conservatives (39%), while the NDP has a tenth share again (12%). In the prairies, the Conservatives (43%) lead the Liberals (37%), and the NDP do their best here (16%). In Alberta, the Conservatives still lead convincingly (57%) over the Liberals (32%) and the NDP doesn’t contend (8%). In BC, the two parties are tied (Liberals - 36%, Conservatives - 35%).

Smaller Liberal majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take a 10 seat majority of 180 seats, to 135 for the Conservatives, 18 for the NDP, four for the Bloc and one for the Green Party.

Trudeau favourables down, Ambrose up

Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of Canadians (51%), down from more than this a month ago (November 10 - 58%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +12, but is down from last month (November 10 - +26). His approval is strongest among the youngest ((57%), females (59%), in Atlantic Canada (82%) and mothers (66%). He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (90%) and one half of New Democrats (49%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of more than a third now (36%), up from 3-in-10 last month (November 10 - 30%). Her net score is a favourable +9, up from +3 last month. She has the approval of 6-in-10 Conservatives (59%).

Tom Mulcair is approved of by just more than a third (35%), similar to his approval last month (November 10 - 33%). His net favourable score is a neutral +1, similar to last month’s score of 0. Mulcair has the approval of two thirds of his members (67%), and 4-in-10 Liberals (41%).

Justin Trudeau still seen as best Prime Minister

Four-in-ten voters see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (40%), and the next largest vote is for “none of these” (17%). Tom Mulcair (12%) and Rona Ambrose (14%). are basically tied in third place. Four-in-ten Conservatives see Rona Ambrose as best at the job (43%), half of New Democrats favour their current leader (48%), but virtually all Liberals see Trudeau as the best at the job (83%).

“There is no question that the high flying Liberals have been brought down hard this month. It may be the Trump Effect, it may be the confluence of a number of tough decisions, including pipelines, occurring at once, and some may be attributed to recent missteps on the part of the Prime Minister. Nonetheless, he remains remarkably popular and his party is still in majority territory, for now," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.