Liberals Widen Gap Over Conservatives

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Liberals Widen Gap Over Conservatives

Last month’s 19 point gap now 23 points

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1474 Canadian voters, more than half will vote Liberal if the election were held today (51%), and just fewer than 3-in-10 would vote Conservative (28%). This gap of 23 points between the leading contenders is compared to a 19 point gap last month (Liberals - 49%, Conservatives - 30%). The NDP will collect a tenth of the vote (11%), stable from last month (October 13 - 12%). The Green Party (5%) and the Bloc Quebecois (4%) have little support.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have two thirds of the vote (64%), to less than a fifth for the Conservatives (17%) or the NDP (13%), In Quebec, the Liberals have half the vote (56%) while the Bloc is second (16%), trailed by the Conservatives (12%) and NDP (11%). In vote-rich Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the Liberals have more than half the vote (54%), while the Conservatives have less than a third (31%) and the NDP a tenth (10%). In the prairies, the Liberals (41%) and the Conservatives are close (38%), but the NDP do not contend in their homeland (13%). Alberta is the only province where the Conservatives lead (59%), followed by the Liberals (37%) and, distantly, by the NDP (6%). The plurality will vote Liberal in BC (43%), followed by a third voting Conservative (33%). The NDP (13%) and the Green Party are tied here (10%).

Liberal supermajority if election held today

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would capture 257, or more than three quarters of them, to 72 seats for the Conservatives, just 8 for the NDP (losing them official party status) and the leader’s seat would remain with the Green Party.

Leader approvals steady since last month

Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half of Canadian voters (58%), and this is characteristic of females (65%), in Atlantic Canada (70%) and Quebec (66%), among Francophones (65%), mothers of children under 18 (72%), the best educated (post grad - 68%) and those who approve of the CETA trade deal (65%). Trudeau has the approval of almost all Liberals (92%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +26. His approval last month was similar (October 13 - 56%), as was his net score (+20).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 Canadian voters (30%), including more than one half of the Conservative party voters (56%). Her net favourable score is a neutral +3. This finding is identical to last month.

Tom Mulcair has the approval of one third of voters (33%), similar to last month (35%), and his net score is a neutral 0, similar to the +1 recorded last month. He has the approval of one half of his party’s supporters (52%), but more than a quarter disapprove (27%) of him as leader

“We may expect to see a slight consolidation of Liberal support in the immediate wake of the Trump putsch, if for no other reason than, as an elected government with significant support, the Liberals represent stability in a suddenly troubled hemisphere" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.