Federal Liberals Maintain Majority Advantage

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Federal Liberals Maintain Majority Advantage

Would win 7-in-10 seats if election held today

The federal NDP would take one tenth of the vote (11%), and the Greens (4%) and the Bloc Quebecois (5%) about half this number. These levels of support are similar to those observed last month (August 6, Liberals - 50%, Conservatives - 31%, NDP - 10%).

The Liberals lead decisively in every region except Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic Canada, they take 7-in-10 votes (70%), to about one tenth for either the Conservatives (14%) or the NDP 11%). In Quebec, the Liberals have half the vote (49%), the Bloc Quebecois has a fifth (21%) and the NDP (13%) and Conservatives (11%) split the rest. In Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the Liberals have almost half the vote (47%), the Conservatives have more than a third (37%) and the NDP a tenth (11%). In the prairies, the Conservatives have a slight lead (46%) over the Liberals (41%) and the NDP do not contend (7%). In Alberta, the Conservatives draw more than half the vote (53%) to about a third for the Liberals (35%) and less than a tenth for the NDP (8%). In BC, the Liberals have half the vote (51%), the Conservatives 3-in-10 (29%) and the NDP more than a tenth (13%).

Liberals see a 70% majority in the House

If these results were projected up to seats in the House, the Liberals would take 238, or 70%, if the election were held today. The Conservatives would earn 87 seats, the NDP 8, the Bloc 4 and the Greens a single seat.

Trudeau approval ticks downward, others steady

Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of just more than half the electorate (55%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is +19. This is in contrast to last month, when his approval stood at 6-in-10 (60%) and his net was a much higher +30. He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (93%) and one half of New Democrats (51%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%), and her net is a relatively neutral +4. This is due to her high “don’t knows” (45%) from those who are too unfamiliar with her to deliver an opinion. Last month, her approvals was also 3-in-10 (31%) and her net score was similar (+6). Just more than one half of Conservative voters approve her performance (55%).

Tom Mulcair has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (31%) and his net score is -2. This is similar to last month (32%, -5). Mulcair has two thirds approval among members of his own party (64%).






Close to half see Justin Trudeau as best PM

Close to half the electorate think that Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister (46%), down slightly from last month (50%). In second place is “none of these” (17%), followed by Rona Ambrose 13%) and Tom Mulcair (8%), Elizabeth May (7%) and Rheal Fortin (1%). Virtually all Liberals see Trudeau as best PM (85%), as do 3-in-10 New Democrats (30%). Just a third of New Democrats see Mulcair as the best Prime Minister (32%).

“After a week in which he was travelling in China, the Prime Minister’s vote share is down slightly, as is his approval, although both are high in comparison with his competitors. This will be the effect of hands-on leadership; a bit of slippage unaccompanied by increases in vote share or approval for the other two leaders" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.