Liberal Vote Share Tumbles in Ontario

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Liberal Vote Share Tumbles in Ontario
PC majority, NDP would form opposition if election held today

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1097 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today (41%), while just more than one quarter would vote Liberal (28%). Just less than a quarter will vote for the NDP (23%).The Green Party takes a share of about one twentieth (6%), while few will vote for any other party (2%).

This stands in contrast to last month, when the PC vote share was relatively stable (42%), but the Liberal vote was sharply higher (35%). The New Democrat vote share has also increased significantly (from 17%) since last month. It appears the lost Liberal votes have gone to the NDP.

The PC vote is common to the oldest (55+ - 46%), Males (48%) rather than females (35%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 47%) and in the 905 area code surrounding Toronto (47%).

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the youngest (34%), the least wealthy (41%), in the Toronto 416 area code (32%) and the best educated (post grad - 37%),

The NDP vote is common to the youngest (30%), females (27%) rather than males (18%), the least wealthy (31%), in northern Ontario (29%) and those with some college (27%).

PC majority, NDP opposition seen

If these results are projected up to the current 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 69, 15 more than required for a majority, while the NDP would form the opposition with 23 seats, and the Liberals would take just 15.

Wynne’s favourables tumble too

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of just one sixth of voters (16%, down from 22%) and this is the lowest approval we have seen for a party leader since 2011. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply negative -56, down from -44 last month. Just 4-in-10 Liberals approve of her performance (42%) and almost as many disapprove (39%).


Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a quarter of voters (26%), down slightly from last month (29%) and his net is a neutral +1, because so many people have no opinion on the question. Just fewer than one half of PC voters approve of Brown (47%), but most don’t know enough to have an opinion (39%).

Andrea Horwath has stable approval at one third (34%) with a slightly positive net of +6. Her approval is at 6-in-10 (62%) among New Democrats.

Brown seen to make best Premier

Patrick Brown is seen to be the best candidate for Premier by a quarter (25%), while about a sixth see Andrea Horwath in this role (17%) and fewer see the incumbent as the best choice (Kathleen Wynne - 14%). However, the largest single group thinks none of these is up to the job (27%), and as many as one fifth don’t have an opinion (17%).

“It appears Premier Wynne’s chickens have finally come home to roost, and voters have started to notice the controversies surrounding her government. The beneficiary, however, appears to be the NDP, rather than the PCs, although a majority would be theirs if the election were held today" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.