No Longer a Honeymoon, Now a Marriage

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No Longer a Honeymoon, Now a Marriage

Liberals to take over 70% of house seats if election held today

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1345 Canadian voters, one half will vote Liberal if an election were held today (50%), whereas 3-in-10 would vote Conservative (31%) and just one tenth would vote for the NDP (10%). Few will vote Green, Bloc Quebecois (4%) each or for any other party (1%). These levels of support are similar to those noted last month (July 6, Liberals - 52%, Conservatives - 28%, NDP - 11%).

The Liberals lead strongly or are tied everywhere in Canada except Alberta. In Atlantic Canada they lead very strongly (62%) compared to about one sixth for the Conservatives (15%) or NDP (14%). In Quebec, Liberals take more than half the vote (55%), the Conservatives (18%) and the Bloc are relatively tied up (15%) and the NDP does not contend (10%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (52%), just more than a third will vote Conservative (36%) and less than one tenth will vote NDP (7%). In the prairies, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied (37% each), and the NDP pull their highest level of support at one fifth (21%). In Alberta, the Conservatives lead solidly (58%), while the Liberals command just one quarter of the vote (27%), and the NDP very little (8%). In BC, half the voters support the Liberals (53%), just more than a quarter will vote Conservative (27%) and one tenth will vote NDP (11%).

Among those who voted NDP in October, 2015, there is an even split between now supporting the Liberals (44%) or voting their own party (43%).

Liberals to take more than 70% of House seats

If an election were held today, the Liberals would take 72% of the seats in the House of Commons, for an unbeatable supermajority of 246 seats, to 81 for the Conservatives, 10 for the NDP (ruling out official party status) and one seat for the Green Party.

Leader approvals steady

Justin Trudeau has the approval of 6-in-10 voters (60%), and his net favourable score (approve mins disapprove) is a stellar +30. He has the approval of all Liberals (92%) and more than half the NDP voters in our sample (55%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (31%), unchanged since last month. Because she has high level of “don’t knows” (44%), her net score is a relatively neutral +6. Ambrose has the approval of just over one half of Conservative voters (55%).

Tom Mulcair has the approval of one third of voters (32%) and his net score is a negative -5. He has the approval of about two thirds of his voters (64%).

One half see Justin Trudeau as best PM

One half the voters in Canada say Justin Trudeau makes the best Prime Minister of all the party leaders (50%), and “none of these” comes in a distant second (15%). Following this are Rona Ambrose (12%) and then a tie between Tom Mulcair (8%) and Elizabeth May (7%).

“We have to dispense with the idea of a honeymoon romance between Canadians and their new government; this has become a stable marriage, one in which both parties are well past the blushing bride and groom stage, and are starting to work together for a secure future" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.