Liberal Vote Share Up in Ontario

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Liberal Vote Share Up in Ontario

NDP share ticks down

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1183 Ontario voters, just more than 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today (42%), while more than a third will vote for the Liberals (35%). Fewer than one fifth will vote NDP (17%). These findings represent a clear increase for the Liberals from last month (June 22 - 30%) and a slight increase for the PCs (from 40%)). These changes are at the expense of the NDP, which has seen its vote share decline by 4 points (from 21%). One twentieth support the Green Party (5%) and few support other parties (2%).

The Liberal stronghold is in the 416 area code of Toronto (49%), while the PCs are especially strong in Eastern, Southwestern and Northern Ontario (46% each). The NDP does best in Northern Ontario (20%).

About one tenth of those who voted Liberal in the last election will vote PC (13%) or NDP (12%) this time, while about one fifth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time around (19%) and just fewer will vote PC (14%).

Wynne’s, Brown’s favourables up sharply

Premier Kathleen Wynne has the approval of close to a quarter of Ontario voters (22%), up from less than a fifth last month (June 22 - 18%). Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is up slightly from -49 to -44. She has the approval of one half of Liberal voters (52%), while one third disapprove (32%).

Patrick Brown has seen his approval jump from one fifth last month (June 22 - 22%) to almost 3-in-10 today (29%), and his net score is +4. His relatively low net score is due to the high percentage who don’t know enough about him to indicate their approval (46%). He has the approval of one half of Progressive Conservative voters (53%).

Andrea Horwath has seen her approval stable at one third (33%), and her net score at +2. She has the approval of 6-in-10 New Democrats (60%).

Brown seen as best Premier by a factor of 2

Patrick Brown is seen to make the best Premier by about twice as many voters (26%) as say this of either Kathleen Wynne (16%) or Andrea Horwath (15%). The leading choice is, however, “none of these” (27%), and as many as a sixth don’t have enough information to judge (16%). More than one half of PC voters pick Brown (57%), and somewhat fewer Liberals pick Wynne (42%) and the same applies to New Democrats for Andrea Horwath (48%).

Result would be PC minority government

If these results are projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 48, 6 fewer than required for a majority, while the Liberals would take just fewer at 44, and the NDP would secure 15 seats.

“The PC lead has shrunk since last month, and this may be related to Patrick Brown’s seeming inability to craft a recognizable political persona for himself. He needs to be much more prominent in the public consciousness" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.