Liberals With 24 Point Lead Today

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Liberals With 24 Point Lead Today

Conservatives tumble; NDP would lose party status

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1429 Canadian voters, the Liberals would attract almost twice as many votes as the Conservatives if an election were held today, with a total of more than half the vote (52%) to just more than a quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP would achieve a tenth of the vote (11%), and very few would vote Green (3%), Bloc Quebecois (5%) or for any other party (1%).

This is in contrast to last month, when the Liberal tally was slightly lower (June 8 - 49%) and the Conservative vote was higher (32%). The NDP vote has stayed stable (June 8 - 10%).

The Liberals are dominant nationally, with a majority vote in every region except Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, they lead (55%), the Conservatives are second (29%) and the NDP doesn’t place (11%). In Quebec, Liberals own half the vote (52%), to about a fifth for the Bloc (18%) and about half that for the Conservatives (13%) and the NDP 10%). In Ontario, The Liberals have half the vote (53%), the Conservatives a third (33%) and the NDP a tenth (11%). In the prairies, significantly, the Liberals have more than half the vote (55%) to a third for the Conservatives (32%) and about a tenth for the NDP (12%) in their birthplace. In Alberta, it is the Conservatives who get the majority of votes (55%), while more than a third go to the Liberals (36%). The NDP do not compete here (4%). In BC, the Liberals’ lead is the largest (58%) compared to the Conservatives (23%), while the NDP do better than elsewhere (15%).

More than a tenth of those who voted Conservative in the recent election would vote Liberal if another were held today (13%) and as many as 4-in-10  2015 New Democrats would vote Liberal (41%). Virtually all 2015 Liberals will vote the same way again (90%).

Liberals would take more than 80% of seats in a “hypermajority”

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take more than 80% (278 seats) to just 55 for the Conservatives and as few as 5 for the NDP. No other party, including, for the first time since we have polled, the Green Party, would seat a member. Of course, with 5 seats, the NDP would cease to be an official party.

Trudeau’s popularity up sharply, Ambrose, Mulcair down

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than 6-in-10 voters (62%), and this is up sharply since last moth (June 8 - 57%). His net favourabilty rating (approve minus disapprove) has increased sharply from a stellar +24 to a stratospheric +33. Trudeau has almost universal approval from Liberals (95%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 (31%), down slightly from last month (June 8 - 34%), but her net score has remained stable at a barely favourable +7. Ambrose has the approval of 6-in-10 Conservative voters (58%).

Tom Mulcair has seen his approval slide as well (from 34% in June to 31% now), and his net score is a negative -5. He has the approval of about 6-in-10 of his party’s voters (61%).

One half see Trudeau as best PM, second is “none of these”

The leading choice for best Prime Minister is the incumbent, Justin Trudeau (49%) with half the vote. The next largest proportion of voters selects “none of these” (19%). Rona Ambrose attracts about one tenth of the vote (13%) as does Tom Mulcair (9%). While 4-in-10 New Democrats see Mulcair as the best PM (44%) as many as 3-in-10 see Justin Trudeau in this role (28%).

“The Liberals apparently can’t set a foot wrong, and they’re enjoying stratospheric levels of support usually seen only in the days immediately following a landslide election. But here in Canada, the landslide is going on and on and on" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.