Liberals With Half the Vote

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Liberals With Half the Vote

Little to no effect from “elbowgate”

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 2271 Canadian voters, one half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (49%), while one third would vote Conservative (32%) and as few as one tenth will vote for the NDP (10%). This is comparable to findings seen last month, with the exception that the Conservatives have seen a slight uptick in their support (from 29% in May) while the Liberals have seen a slight decrease in theirs (from 52% in May). The NDP support levels have not changed (May, 2016 - 11%).

Liberals are dominant across the country except in Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic Canada, they have well more than half the vote (58%) to just more than one quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP do not place (10%). In Quebec, Liberals have more than half the vote (53%), the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois are tied at about one fifth (17% each), and the NDP does not place (9%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (51%) while the Conservatives do relatively well (36%). The NDP do not contend (9%). In the prairies, the Conservatives lead (49%) and the Liberals are second (35%). Here, where the party was born, the NDP is not a contender (9%). In Alberta alone do the Conservatives have majority support (59%), while the Liberals have a third (32%). The federal NDP does not figure in this province (4%). In BC, Liberals have half the vote (49%), well more than the Conservatives (29%). The NDP score their highest vote share, almost a fifth, here (17%).

Among those who voted NDP in the recent federal election, as many as 4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (43%), actually more than would vote NDP again (42%).

Liberals would take a two thirds majority

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take 68%, well more than a supermajority (230 seats), while the Conservatives would settle for 98 seats. The NDP would capture as few as 9 seats, thereby losing official party status, while the Green Party would seat one member, their leader.

Prime Minister Trudeau’s approval sees no change since “elbowgate”

Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (57%), and his net favourability rating (approve minus disapprove) is a sterling +24. These levels of approval are exactly the same as those noted in May (57%, +24), before he supposedly squandered his goodwill in the scuffle which has become known as “elbowgate”. Trudeau has almost universal appeal among Liberal voters (93% approval).

Rona Ambrose has seen her approval improve slightly since May (from 31% to 34%), as has her net score (+5 to +7). Six-in-ten Conservative voters approve of Ms. Ambrose (60%), while about one sixth do not (15%).

Tom Mulcair has seen his approval decline very slightly since last month (from 36% to 34%), while his net score has declined from +5 to -4. Two thirds of New Democrats approve of Mr. Mulcair (64%), while about one fifth do not (17%).

Two thirds see Trudeau as positively or more positively than they did on election day

Two thirds of Canadian voters (68%) judge Justin Trudeau more favourably now (30%), or as favourably as they did at the election (38%), an indication that “elbowgate” has done little to diminish his appeal. In fact, it is only among Conservatives that the majority (56%) see the Prime Minister less favourably now than when he was elected

Close to half see Trudeau as best PM

Close to one half of voters consider Justin Trudeau to be the best choice for Prime Minister (45%), and second to this choice is “none of the above” (19%). Rona Ambrose and Tom Mulcair are tied for third in this measure (11% and 9%, respectively). Almost all Liberals see Justin Trudeau as the best choice (84%), whereas just one third of Conservatives believe Ms. Ambrose is the best choice (37%) and a similar proportion of New Democrats opt for Mr. Mulcair (38%). In fact, one quarter of New Democrat voters see Mr. Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (26%).

“What we are seeing here, in the middle of relative stasis for the two leading parties, is the slow evisceration of the NDP, and its interim leader. They run the risk of becoming a marginal party in some of their strongest garrisons, and their interim leader who won’t leave does not appear to be helping their ratings. A party that can’t break double digits in the popular vote or in seats in parliament is in dire need of refreshing, or winding up" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.