One half of Canadians would vote for Liberals

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One half of Canadians would vote for Liberals

Trudeau’s popularity stays high

TORONTO February 18th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1406 Canadian voters, fully one half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (49%), and this is up slightly from the last time we polled (December, 2015 - 46%). In comparison, one third will vote Conservative (32%, stable from December), and as few as one tenth will vote for the NDP (10% now, 13% in December). Very few would vote Green (5%) or for the Bloc Quebecois (3%).

Liberals are most popular among the oldest voters (55+ - 52%), females (54%) and mid income groups ($20K to $60K - 53%). The Conservative vote is common to mid age groups (35 to 54 - 36%), males (37%) and to mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 41%) and the wealthiest (39%). The NDP voter is especially likely to be younger (Under 35 - 16%) and the least wealthy (often a proxy for age - 16%). Of note, 3-in-10 NDP voters from the election in October would vote Liberal today (31%), as would one tenth of 2015 Conservatives (11%).

The Liberals are dominant in every region except the prairies and Alberta. In the Atlantic provinces, two thirds will vote Liberal (69%), followed by one fifth or fewer for the Conservatives (19%) or the NDP (10%). In Quebec, the Liberals lead with more than half the vote (54%), while one fifth or fewer supports the Conservatives (17%), the Bloc (13%) or the NDP (11%). In Ontario, more than half support the Liberals (51%) to about a third for the Conservatives (35%) and less than a tenth for the NDP (8%). In the prairies, the Liberals and the Conservatives are essentially tied (42% to 40%), while the NDP languishes in their birth region (12%). In Alberta, the Conservatives are firmly preferred by 6-in-10 (60%) to just one quarter for the Liberals (26%). Few support the federal NDP (7%). In BC, close to half will vote Liberal (48%), to one third for the Conservatives (33%) and about one sixth for the NDP (14%).

Trudeau with high approval, among New Democrats too

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of close to 6-in-10 Canadians (57%), stable from December. His net favourability (approval minus disapproval) is an extremely positive +23. While the Prime Minister’s approval is almost universal among Liberals (91%), it is also characteristic of two thirds of New Democrats (69%). Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose has the approval of just more than a quarter (28%) and her net favourable is a relatively neutral -3. As many as 4-in-10 don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Her approval rating among Conservative voters is one half (52%). Tom Mulcair has the approval of just more than one third (36%). including three quarters of NDP voters (74%). Ambrose’s approvals have not changed since December, 2015, but Mulcair’s have declined slightly (from 41%).

One half see Trudeau as best choice for PM

Close to one half see Justin Trudeau as the best person for his job (47%), compared to just one tenth for Ambrose (12%), Mulcair (8%) or Elizabeth May (7%). As many as one quarter of New Democrats see Trudeau as the best PM (25%), and close to 4-in-10 of those who voted NDP in 2015 do so as well (38%).

Two thirds satisfied with election outcome

Two thirds of Canadians are satisfied with the outcome of the October, 2015 election (64%), and more than a third are “very satisfied” (35%). Satisfaction is highest among Liberals of course (96% overall, 69% “very”), but three quarters of NDP voters are satisfied (72%), and one fifth are “very satisfied” (20%). Even among Conservative voters, one sixth are satisfied (15%).

Liberal super-supermajority if election held today

If the results shown above are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would capture more than 7-in 10 seats (240) to just 91 for the Conservatives, no more than 6 for the New Democrats and one seat for the Greens.

 “The Liberal honeymoon shows no signs of abating, and we have to stop calling it that, as it has gone on far too long to be a brief post electoral crush. It has now been 100 days since the Trudeau government took power, and the Prime Minister has the kind of electoral support and approval that would make a despot blush,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.