One half agree Wynne is involved in e-mail scandal

| Filed under: Ontario

One half agree Wynne is involved in e-mail scandal

Close to half agree Premier should step aside during investigation

TORONTO December 21st, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1003 Ontario voters, one half agrees Premier Kathleen Wynne had a role in erasing the gas plant e-mails (49%), while one fifth disagree she had any role (21%). As many as 3-in-10 don’t have an opinion (31%). Among PCs, three quarters agree the Premier is culpable (73%), while just one fifth of Liberals think she is (19%). Six-in-ten New Democrats agree the Premier had a role in deleting the e-mails (59%).

One half agree Premier should step down during investigation of e-mails

Close to one half of Ontario voters agree Premier Wynne should step aside while the scandal of the erased e-mails is investigated (47%), and more than a third disagree (36%). Fewer than one fifth don’t have an opinion (18%). Of note, as many as one fifth of those who plan to vote Liberal in the next election believe the Premier should step aside (18%). Three quarters of PCs (73%) and more than one half of New Democrats agree (53%).

PCs lead in voter preference

One third will vote PC if the election were held today (34%), while about 3-in-10 will vote Liberal (31%). One quarter will vote NDP (26%) and few will vote Green (7%) or for another party (1%). These findings represent stability since last month, when the PCs similarly led by 6 points (November 5, PCs - 36%, Liberals - 30%, NDP - 26%).

The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (41%) males (40%), while the Liberal vote is common to the youngest (3%), females (33%) rather than males (28%), mid income groups (41%) in Eastern Ontario (39%) and among the most educated (post grad - 38%). The NDP vote is also common to the youngest (34%), the least wealthy (33%) and in Southwestern Ontario (33%).

Small PC minority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in the current 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take a minority of 44 seats, 10 fewer than required for a majority, while the Liberals would take 35 seats and the NDP 25, for a very balanced house.

Party leader favourables are steady

Fewer than a quarter of Ontario voters approve of Kathleen Wynne’s performance as Premier (23%) and she has a net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of a very negative -38. This is in contrast to a poorer previous score of 21% and -47 last month. Patrick Brown has the approval of one quarter of voters (25%) and his net is a neutral +2. This is very similar to last month’s score of 27% and 0. Andrea Horwath has the highest approval at 4-in-10 voters (40%) and her net favourble score is a very positive +13. This is similar to last month’s findings on this measure (41% approval, +11 net favourable).

Three leaders tied for best Premier

All three leaders are seen to make the best Premier, Including Andrea Horwath (20%), Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown (19% each). However, more than a quarter think none of these three is up to the job (27%).

 While this looks dire for the Premier, with one half the electorate suggesting she step down, it must be noted that the government’s vote share and approvals have not changed markedly from before this information about the erased e-mails was released," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.