Liberal lead opens up

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Justin Trudeau, MP by Alex Guibord is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence

Liberal lead opens up

Liberal minority now seen; Conservatives in opposition

TORONTO October 10th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1427 Canadian voters ten days before the October 19 federal election, close to 4-in-10 will vote for the Liberals (37%), while about 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). Fewer than one quarter will vote NDP (23%). The Bloc Quebecois will take a twentieth of the vote (5%), the Green Party less (3%) and other parties very few (1%).

Liberals open lead from October 6, NDP loses share

These findings represent a slight increase for the Liberals in their vote share since we polled last (October 6 - Liberals 35%) and stasis for the Conservatives (31% on October 6). This means the additional Liberal support comes from the NDP, which had more than a quarter share on October 6 (26%).

Liberals lead in Ontario, Atlantic, Quebec, tied in BC

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead (39%) and the Conservatives (31%) and NDP (28%) strive for second. In Quebec, the Liberals now lead (29%), and the NDP are second (25%), followed closely by the Conservatives (22%) and Bloc (21%). In battleground Ontario, the Liberals have a convincing lead (46%), the Conservatives are second (31%) and the NDP lag (21%). In the Prairies, the Conservatives lead (43%), but the Liberals are close (35%). In Alberta, the Conservatives dominate (46%), the Liberals are second (30%) and the NDP third (19%). The parties are very closely matched in BC, with the Liberals and Conservatives tied (32% each) and the NDP close behind (28%).

Liberal minority seen; Conservatives in opposition

If these results are projected up to seats in the newly expanded House of Commons, the Liberals would take a strong minority of 145 seats, 25 fewer than required for a majority, while the Conservatives would capture 116 and the NDP 69. The Bloc would take a three month high of 7 seats, and the Green Party would seat their leader.

Gender gap for NDP, Conservatives

The Conservatives are more popular among males (34%) than they are among females (28%), while the opposite is true of the NDP (20% males, 26% females). The Liberal party has an even gender balance in its support (37% and 38%, respectively).

One quarter could yet change their vote

One quarter of voters who have made a choice say they could still change their vote before the election (25%), and this is more common to those who have chosen the New Democrats (31%) than it is among those planning to vote Conservative (17%).

Justin Trudeau seen as best PM

Justin Trudeau is now seen as the best choice for Prime Minister (29%), followed closely by Stephen Harper (26%) and somewhat more distantly by Tom Mulcair (22%). This is in contrast to three days ago, when Harper (27%) and Trudeau (28%) were essentially tied on this measure.


We picked up the momentum away from a two horse race and in favour of the Liberals at the beginning of the week, and, while the numbers haven’t moved a great deal, they’re moving on trend. The NDP have effectively been sidelined by now, and it is unlikely they will recover in 10 days. What remains to be seen is whether this is a Conservative blip or slide," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.