Justin Trudeau, MP by Alex Guibord is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence
Liberal lead opens up
Liberal minority now
seen; Conservatives in opposition
October 10th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
the Forum Poll™ among 1427 Canadian voters ten days before the October 19
federal election, close to 4-in-10 will vote for the Liberals (37%), while
about 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). Fewer than one quarter will vote
NDP (23%). The Bloc Quebecois will take a twentieth of the vote (5%), the Green
Party less (3%) and other parties very few (1%).
Liberals open lead from
October 6, NDP loses share
findings represent a slight increase for the Liberals in their vote share since
we polled last (October 6 - Liberals 35%) and stasis for the Conservatives (31%
on October 6). This means the additional Liberal support comes from the NDP,
which had more than a quarter share on October 6 (26%).
Liberals lead in
Ontario, Atlantic, Quebec, tied in BC
Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead (39%) and the Conservatives (31%) and NDP
(28%) strive for second. In Quebec, the Liberals now lead (29%), and the NDP are
second (25%), followed closely by the Conservatives (22%) and Bloc (21%). In
battleground Ontario, the Liberals have a convincing lead (46%), the
Conservatives are second (31%) and the NDP lag (21%). In the Prairies, the
Conservatives lead (43%), but the Liberals are close (35%). In Alberta, the
Conservatives dominate (46%), the Liberals are second (30%) and the NDP third
(19%). The parties are very closely matched in BC, with the Liberals and
Conservatives tied (32% each) and the NDP close behind (28%).
Liberal minority seen;
Conservatives in opposition
these results are projected up to seats in the newly expanded House of Commons,
the Liberals would take a strong minority of 145 seats, 25 fewer than required
for a majority, while the Conservatives would capture 116 and the NDP 69. The
Bloc would take a three month high of 7 seats, and the Green Party would seat
Gender gap for NDP,
Conservatives are more popular among males (34%) than they are among females
(28%), while the opposite is true of the NDP (20% males, 26% females). The
Liberal party has an even gender balance in its support (37% and 38%,
One quarter could yet
change their vote
quarter of voters who have made a choice say they could still change their vote
before the election (25%), and this is more common to those who have chosen the
New Democrats (31%) than it is among those planning to vote Conservative (17%).
Justin Trudeau seen as
Trudeau is now seen as the best choice for Prime Minister (29%), followed
closely by Stephen Harper (26%) and somewhat more distantly by Tom Mulcair
(22%). This is in contrast to three days ago, when Harper (27%) and Trudeau
(28%) were essentially tied on this measure.
“We picked up the momentum
away from a two horse race and in favour of the Liberals at the beginning of
the week, and, while the numbers haven’t moved a great deal, they’re moving on
trend. The NDP have effectively been sidelined by now, and it is unlikely they
will recover in 10 days. What remains to be seen is whether this is a
Conservative blip or slide," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.