Close to half approve of TPP
Voters also support supply management
TORONTO
October 7th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
the Forum Poll™ among 1447 Canadian voters, three quarters are aware the
government agreed to the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP - 76%) and this
is especially common to the oldest (55+ - 83%), males (81%), the wealthiest
($100K to $250K - 83%), not so much in BC, surprisingly (72%), among
Conservatives (80%) and among college grads (80%).
Close to half approve of TPP
Close
to one half of voters approve of the TPP, described as a “trade agreement
between 12 Pacific Rim countries which will reduce tariffs and create duty-free
entry into Canada for many products, including pork, fruit, wines, liquor,
machinery, minerals and forest products” (46%). Approval is highest among older
groups (55 to 64 - 50%), males (50%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 52%),
in Quebec (52%) and Alberta (51%), among Conservatives (77%), but not among
Liberals (39%) or, especially, New Democrats (25%). It is popular among
Francophones (53%). Just 3-in-10 disapprove (30%).
When told auto sector may be affected,
approval drops
When
voters are prompted that Canada may lose some auto industry jobs due to opening
the market to foreign auto parts suppliers, approval declines from close to half
to about 4-in-10 (39%), and an exactly equal proportion disapprove (39%).
Supply management a good thing
More
than half of voters say it would be a bad thing if TPP allowed American dairy
products to flood Canadian markets at lower prices (55%), while 3-in-10 see a
benefit to this (29%). One sixth don’t have an opinion (16%). Supply management
receives its highest approval in Quebec (61% bad thing). Conservatives are much
less likely to see cheaper dairy as a bad thing (33%) than are Liberals (60%)
or, especially, New Democrats (73%).
Plurality approves $4.3 billion to
farmers
The
plurality, close to half, approves of the $4.3 billion payout to farmers
arising out of the provisions of TPP (45%), while just more than third
disapproves (37%). Approval of this payout is highest among Quebeckers (53%)
and Conservatives (54%).
3-in-10 say TPP will influence their
vote
Three-in-ten
voters say TPP will influence their vote in total (31%), and one third of
these, or one tenth in total, say it will influence it “a great deal” (10%).
Incidence of a high level of influence on one’s vote is common to the youngest
(14%), the least wealthy (14%, a proxy for youth), in Atlantic Canada (14%) and
among New Democrats (15%) and Bloquistes (15%). Thus, it is clear the trade
pact excites vote influence only among those who oppose it.
“It isn’t a huge vote of
confidence in TPP, and the don’t knows are expectedly high, but it appears the
trade deal is more of a benefit than an obstacle to the government’s
re-election effort, especially as its biggest foes are the young, who are least
likely to vote," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
