Close to half approve of TPP

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Close to half approve of TPP

Voters also support supply management

TORONTO October 7th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1447 Canadian voters, three quarters are aware the government agreed to the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP - 76%) and this is especially common to the oldest (55+ - 83%), males (81%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 83%), not so much in BC, surprisingly (72%), among Conservatives (80%) and among college grads (80%).

Close to half approve of TPP

Close to one half of voters approve of the TPP, described as a “trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim countries which will reduce tariffs and create duty-free entry into Canada for many products, including pork, fruit, wines, liquor, machinery, minerals and forest products” (46%). Approval is highest among older groups (55 to 64 - 50%), males (50%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 52%), in Quebec (52%) and Alberta (51%), among Conservatives (77%), but not among Liberals (39%) or, especially, New Democrats (25%). It is popular among Francophones (53%). Just 3-in-10 disapprove (30%).

When told auto sector may be affected, approval drops

When voters are prompted that Canada may lose some auto industry jobs due to opening the market to foreign auto parts suppliers, approval declines from close to half to about 4-in-10 (39%), and an exactly equal proportion disapprove (39%).

Supply management a good thing

More than half of voters say it would be a bad thing if TPP allowed American dairy products to flood Canadian markets at lower prices (55%), while 3-in-10 see a benefit to this (29%). One sixth don’t have an opinion (16%). Supply management receives its highest approval in Quebec (61% bad thing). Conservatives are much less likely to see cheaper dairy as a bad thing (33%) than are Liberals (60%) or, especially, New Democrats (73%).

Plurality approves $4.3 billion to farmers

The plurality, close to half, approves of the $4.3 billion payout to farmers arising out of the provisions of TPP (45%), while just more than third disapproves (37%). Approval of this payout is highest among Quebeckers (53%) and Conservatives (54%).

3-in-10 say TPP will influence their vote

Three-in-ten voters say TPP will influence their vote in total (31%), and one third of these, or one tenth in total, say it will influence it “a great deal” (10%). Incidence of a high level of influence on one’s vote is common to the youngest (14%), the least wealthy (14%, a proxy for youth), in Atlantic Canada (14%) and among New Democrats (15%) and Bloquistes (15%). Thus, it is clear the trade pact excites vote influence only among those who oppose it.

It isn’t a huge vote of confidence in TPP, and the don’t knows are expectedly high, but it appears the trade deal is more of a benefit than an obstacle to the government’s re-election effort, especially as its biggest foes are the young, who are least likely to vote," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.