Liberal-Conservative tie persists in Ontario

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Liberal-Conservative tie persists in Ontario

Liberals have advantage in seats

TORONTO January 30th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1028 Ontario voters, equal proportions, just more than a third each, will vote for the Liberals (37%) or the Progressive Conservatives (36%) if a provincial election were held today. These findings are very similar to those noted at the end of last year (December 20, 2014, Liberals - 35%, PCs - 36%). The NDP will take just less than a fifth of the vote (19%), stable from last year (20%). Few will vote Green (6%) or for any other party (2%).

The Liberal vote is common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 47%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 51%), in the Toronto 416 area code (47%) and among the best educated (post grad - 47%). The PC vote is characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 42%) and seniors (42%), males (41%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 41%), in southwestern Ontario (40%) and among those who didn’t finish college (42%). The New Democrat vote is especially common to the youngest (26%), females (22%) rather than males (16%), among the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 33%), in northern Ontario (28%) and among the least educated (29%). Of note, 1-in-7 of those who voted NDP in the recent election will vote Liberal this time around (15%). One tenth will vote PC (8%), which is also the case among Liberals (10%).

Seat distribution favours Liberal, slim majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in the current 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a two seat majority of 56 seats (down two from their tally in the June election), while the PCs would capture 34, an increase since the election from 28. The NDP would see a decrease to 17 seats from the 21 they took in the election.

Neither Elliott nor MacLeod as leader improve PC fortunes

Both Christine Elliott and Lisa MacLeod are tested in the voting preference question as PC leaders. Neither does better than the generic party mention on this measure. With Christine Elliott presented as leader, Liberal (36%) and PC (35%) stay almost exactly the same, as is the NDP vote (21%). With MacLeod proposed as leader, the PCs fall to less than a third (32%), the Liberals increase to 4-in-10 (40%) and the NDP remains stable (20%).

Wynne’s favourables up slightly

Premier Wynne has the approval of 4-in-10 voters (40%), up from just more than a third at the end of last year (37%), and her net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a slightly negative -7. Andrea Horwath (36% approval, net -3) and Jim Wilson (22% approval, net -3) remain stable on this measure.

 While the Liberals and the PCs are neck and neck in the popular vote, the greater efficiency of the distribution of Liberal support allows them to take more seats than the opposition." said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.