Liberals maintain substantial lead over Conservatives

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No change in party standings; slim Liberal majority seen if election held today

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1572 Canadian voters, 4-in-10 would vote Liberal if the election were held today (39%), while 3-in-10 would vote Conservative (30%), and these findings have not changed since last month (March 29 - Liberals 39%, Conservatives - 29%). The NDP will take one fifth of the vote (20%), down very slightly from last month (22%). Few would vote Green (4%) or Bloc Quebecois (6%) or for any other party (1%). The Liberal vote is common to the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 46%, $100K to $250K - 43%), Atlantic Canada (59%), and BC (45%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (34%), in the prairies (49%) and, especially, in Alberta (56%). The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (32%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 26%) and in Quebec (24%). Of note, one fifth of past Conservative voters will vote Liberal this time (19%), as will one third of past New Democrat voters (32%). In contrast, few past Liberal voters will vote for either of the other parties (will vote Conservative - 6%, will vote NDP - 7%).

Bare majority for Liberals

If these results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would capture a 3 seat majority of 158. The Conservatives will be in line for 100 seats, while the NDP would take 39, the Bloc 10 and the Green Party would retain the leader's seat.

Mulcair favourables up

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has seen his approval rating increase from just more than a third last month (37%) to closer to half today (44%) and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +16, well up from +4. Prime Minister Harper (approval 31%, net -29) and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (approval 46%, net +8) have seen their ratings stay stable (Harper - 33% and -24, Trudeau - 44% and +5, respectively).

Trudeau now seen as best PM

Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister according to the plurality (30%), followed by a quarter who opt for the incumbent Stephen Harper (25%). Fewer than a fifth select Tom Mulcair (17%). Just one tenth picks Elizabeth May (10%), while one fifth have no opinion on this measure (18%). There have been no significant changes on this measure in the last month.

Trudeau leads or ties on all attributes except the economy

Of the attributes tested, Justin Trudeau leads for having the best vision for Canada (32%), compared to Harper (25%), Mulcair (15%) or May (8%). One fifth of NDP voters pick Trudeau on this measure (18%). Trudeau is also most likely to be seen as the leader who cares about people like the respondent (28%, Harper and Mulcair 20% each, May 11%). Trudeau is essentially tied with Harper for most trustworthy (24% and 22%, respectively) while Mulcair (18%) and May (15%) follow close behind. For handling the economy, Stephen Harper is preferred (35%) to Trudeau (24%) or Mulcair (16%). Few pick May (5%).

Past NDP, Conservative voters now supporting Liberals

Six-in-ten past New Democrat voters (61%) and about one eighth of past Conservative voters (16%) say they will vote for whichever party has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives this time. This represents a decline from last fall among Conservatives with this view, but a solid increase among NDP past voters (September 2013 - past Conservatives - 24%, past New Democrats - 42%). One quarter of past Conservatives (26%) and close to one half of past New Democrats (45%) say they don't usually vote Liberal but might vote for Justin Trudeau, and these are the same proportions as in the fall (past Conservatives - 25%, past New Democrats - 42%). As many as one quarter of past Conservative voters say the party has become too right wing for them to support anymore (26%), similar to last year's finding (28%). A similar proportion of past Conservative voters say their party has been in power too long (26% now, 24% last year), and even one tenth of those who will vote for them next time think they have had power for too long (13%). Three-in-ten past New Democrats will not vote for the party this time (30%) and this is an increase since last year (26%).


This race is stable, contrary to some reports, and the Liberals maintain their comfortable lead. A growing comfort with Trudeau as leader, one year into his tenure, and the support of a substantial proportion of those who voted NDP in the last election implies this will continue to be the case," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.