Conservatives lead in Whitby-Oshawa

| Filed under: National

Caesar-Chavannes with highest approval

TORONTO, OCTOBER 27th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 894 voters in the federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa, where a by-election will be held on November 17, the Conservative candidate, Pat Perkins, has more than 4-in-10 votes (41%) to about one third for her Liberal counterpart, Celina Caesar-Chavannes (32%). The NDP candidate would be supported by about one sixth if the election were held today (15%), and few would vote Green (8% - the previous candidate's name was used) or for any other candidate (4%). Males will support Pat Perkins more than females (46% to 36%), while the gender gap works in Celina Caesar-Chavannes' favour (28% to 36%, respectively). Both past Liberal and past Conservative voters are equally likely to support their parties this time (77% and 74%, respectively) whereas New Democrats are less likely to do so (58%). Of note, one fifth of past NDP voters will vote Liberal this time around (18%).

Awareness high for Pat Perkins, approval tops for Caesar-Chavannes

Awareness of Pat Perkins, Whitby's mayor, is high (82%), and more than half of those aware approve of her (57%). By contrast, just half as many are aware of Celina Caesar-Chavannes (44%) but two thirds approve of the candidate (69%). New Democrat Trish McAuliffe has similar levels of awareness (42%) and approval (61%).

Jim Flaherty has left a powerful legacy in this riding, but he's also left big shoes to fill. The Liberal frisson that's sweeping the country appears to be having its effect here too. Everyone knows Pat Perkins, but Caesar-Chavannes is very popular among those who know her, and she has a lot of upside yet,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.