Liberal lead tightens again as nation goes to war

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Liberal lead tightens again as nation goes to war

Slim Conservative minority seen

TORONTO OCTOBER 6th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1504 Canadian voters, close to 4-in-10 will vote Liberal if the federal election were held today (38%), compared to just more than a third who will vote Conservative (34%). This 4 point lead stands in contrast to the 6 point lead measured last month (September 7, Liberals - 40%, Conservatives - 34%) and the  9 point lead seen in August (August 20, Liberals - 41%, Conservatives - 32%). The lead was 12 points in July. One fifth will vote NDP now (19%) stable from past months (September - 18%, August - 17%). Few will vote Green (4%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for any other party (1%). One third of those who voted for the NDP in the last federal election will vote Liberal this time (36%), and only just more than half will vote New Democrat again (57%).

Very slim Conservative minority government seen

If these results are projected up to seat counts in the current 308 seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would take 132 to 130 for the Liberals, and this is a sharp reversal from last month, when the Liberals were projected to take 162 seats to 113 for the Conservatives. The NDP will take 44 seats, up from 30 last month. The Bloc and the Greens would each take a single seat.

Mulcair favourables up slightly, others stable

Thomas Mulcair has seen his approval rating increase slightly from just less than 4-in-10 (38%) to just more than this (42%) and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) has increased from +6 to +11. In the case of both Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, approval scores have not changed since last month (34% and 44%, respectively). The net scores for both have not changed significantly (-23 and +4, respectively).

"We are seeing a slow but measurable trend towards parity between the two leading parties. The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by such a slight amount, any change will leave the parties tied. This hasn't happened because the Conservatives' chances have improved, but because the Liberals attract very slightly less support each month, and this may be caused by their implied opposition to taking action against ISIS in the mideast," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.