Hung legislature seen in Ontario

| Filed under: Ontario

Hudak's approvals up sharply

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1154 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if the election were held today (39%) compared to just more than a third who would vote Liberal (34%). One fifth will vote NDP (21%), and these results are comparable to those recorded the day after the election was called (May 3, PC - 38%, Liberal - 33%, NDP - 22%). Very few will vote Green (5%) or for any other party (1%). The Liberals lead in Toronto 416 area code (43% to 33% for the PCs), are tied in the GTA in total (39% each) and trail everywhere else in the province. The NDP do especially well in southwestern Ontario (30%). The PC vote is "stickiest" in that more past PC voters will vote their party again this time (83%) than will Liberals (75%) or New Democrats (70%). Of note, one tenth of pat Liberal voters will vote either PC or NDP this time (11% each), while one fifth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (21%).

Hung Legislature seen

If these results are projected up to seat counts in a 107 seat Legislature, both the Liberals and the PCs would capture 48, leaving the NDP with the balance of power at 11 seats. These seat counts are not dissimilar from those noted last week (Liberals - 49, PCs - 45, NDP - 13).

NDP are leading second choice

Among PC supporters, one quarter say the NDP would be their second choice (24%), while among Liberals, close to 6-in-10 say this (57%). Four-in-ten New Democrats will pick the Liberals second (38%), as will one tenth of PC supporters (13%). Very few pick the PCs second.

Hudak, Wynne see favourables jump; Horwath flat

Close to 4-in10 voters approve of Kathleen Wynne (37%), up from one third last week (34%), and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has moved up from -17 to -12. Tim Hudak has seen his approval jump sharply from one quarter (26%) last week to 3-in-10 (30%) now, and this is the first time he has cracked 30% since we began tracking leader approval. In addition, his net rating has been halved from -25 to -12 today. Andrea Horwath's approval has stayed flat (35%, 36% last week) and her net is -6 (compared to -5 last week).

Hudak up in best Premier rating

While Kathleen Wynne leads among voters as the best Premier (29%, from 28% last week), Tim Hudak has improved significantly on this score (from 22% last week to 26% this week). Horwath is seen to be the best Premier by one seventh (15%) and this is the same as last week. One fifth think none of the leaders would make a good Premier (20%) and one tenth can't make up their minds (10%).

“Approval for both Kathleen Wynne, and Tim Hudak has increased and Hudak, who has struggled with his popularity, has broken out of the mid-20s on this measure for the first time," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.