Liberals, PCs tied in Ontario

| Filed under: Ontario

Liberal minority seen if election held today

TORONTO October 1st, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1079 Ontario voters, almost equal proportions, just more than one third each, will vote for the Liberals (36%) or the PCs (34%) if the provincial election were held today. One quarter would vote NDP (23%), one twentieth would vote Green (6%) and very few would vote for other parties (1%). This tied result stands in contrast to last month, when the Liberals led by 7 points (39% to 32%). In that month, the New Democrats have improved their vote share (from 19% to 23%).

Liberal minority seen

If these results were projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a 4 seat minority of 51 seats (down from 61 last month), to 35 for the PCs (up from 31) and 21 for the New Democrats, up from 15 last month.

Party leader favourables down across the board; Wynne leads

In a symptom of post-electoral fatigue, favourables for all party leaders have declined. Four-in-ten now approve of Kathleen Wynne (41%), down from close to half last month (46%), Jim Wilson is approved by just one fifth (18%), down from more than a quarter (27%) and Andrea Horwath is down slightly (35% to 31%). Wynne’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is 0 now, down slightly from +2 last month. Wilson is at -10 now, well down from 0, and Andrea Horwath has seen her score stabilize at -11 (-10 last month).

Christine Elliott seen as best PC leader

Among all Ontario voters, the largest single group see MPP Christine Elliott as the best choice for PC leader (14%), followed by MPP Lisa MacLeod (9%), MP Patrick Brown (5%) and MPPs Monte McNaughton and Vic Fedeli (4% each). One fifth see someone else in the role (19%) while the plurality don’t have an opinion (43%).

Among PC voters, the results are even more conclusive, and one quarter opt for Christine Elliott (24%) and one tenth for Lisa MacLeod (11%). Among PC voters, one fifth would select someone else (20%) and 3-in-10 have no opinion (30%).

These results are a bit of a comedown from the contact high Ontarians were getting from Kathleen Wynne and her government after the election. It appears the voters have taken off the rose coloured glasses and all the parties are basically back where they were on election day," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.