Tory voters most motivated

| Filed under: Toronto

Tory voters most motivated

Rob should withdraw from Ward 2 - one half

TORONTO SEPTEMBER 22nd, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1164 Toronto voters, those who support John Tory are the most committed to voting in the upcoming municipal election (91% absolutely certain), compared to Chow supporters (85%) and Doug Ford voters (81%).

One half more likely to vote now Doug is in

One half of Toronto voters say they are more likely to vote in this election because Doug Ford has joined the race (48%), while very few say they are less motivated to vote (3%). One half say Doug's candidacy makes no difference to their intention to vote (48%). Doug's supporters are most likely to say they are more committed to voting now (67%), followed by Tory supporters (47%) then Chow voters (27%).

Majority want Rob Ford to resign, one half to withdraw from Ward 2 race

Just more than one half think Rob Ford should resign as mayor (54%), but just fewer think he should withdraw from the Ward 2 councilor’s race (50%). Four-in-ten disagree with the former (39%) and the latter (43%).

Voters equally likely to prefer both Doug and Rob for mayor

One quarters say they would prefer Rob Ford as mayor (26%) and a similar proportion opt for his brother Doug (24%). About one tenth say either one would do (12%), while 4-in-10 want nothing to do with either brother (38%). Doug Ford supporters are much more likely to prefer Rob (46%) than Doug (34%) for mayor.

Tory preferred to Chow and Ford in a 1-on-1; Chow beats Ford

In three scenarios where just two candidates compete, John Tory has the advantage, winning both a 1-on-1 against Doug Ford (57% to 35%) and against Chow (49% to 35%). In the remaining 1-on-1 race, Olivia Chow defeats Doug Ford (50% to 41%).

One quarter would pay up to $1 a day to build transit/infrastructure

Close to one quarter of Toronto voters will spend up to $1 a day or more extra to see the various transit and infrastructure promises made by candidates for mayor built (23%), and more than a third would pay up to 50 cents or more (36%). On average, including the one third who say they will pay nothing (32%), the average amount Toronto voters say they would spend is 17 cents a day.

Accessible transit, repairing sewer/water infrastructure key non-transit issues

When voters are presented with a list of issues not including building transit, the one that rises to the top of concern is making transit more accessible (26%), followed by repairing sewer/water systems now (19%) and dealing more effectively with the mentally ill on our streets (10%). There is less concern about controlling the police budget (8%), term limits at city hall (7%), tolling highways (6%), moving marathons and parades off major thoroughfares (5%) or ensuring payback from the Pan Am Games (2%). Among Doug Ford's supporters, accessible transit (15%), repairing sewers and water systems (18%), controlling the police budget (15%) and dealing with the mentally ill (12%) are important. Tory supporters are concerned with accessible transit (30%) and repairing infrastructure (22%) most, while Chow voters are concerned with accessible transit (36%), the mentally ill (18%) and aging infrastructure (15%). Among the very small sample of Ari Goldkind supporters, aging infrastructure repairs are key.

"Doug may not be quite as well-liked by Ford Nation as his more cuddly brother, but his Hail Mary entry into the race has certainly galvanized its citizens, and they're eager to vote for their new champion. The challenge will be for them to overcome the strong motivation that is also driving John Tory's supporters," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.