Rob Ford with strong lead in Ward 2

| Filed under: Toronto

Andray Domise holds on

TORONTO SEPTEMBER 12th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 474 voters in Toronto's Ward 2 Etobicoke North the day after candidate Mike Ford withdrew to be replaced by his uncle, Rob Ford, who is in hospital with an as-yet undiagnosed tumour, 6-in-10 will vote for the elder Mr. Ford (59%), compared to about one quarter who will vote for his principal challenger, businessman and community organizer Andray Domise (26%). This stands in contrast to the one half who said they would vote for Mike Ford (50%) versus the 3-in-10 voting Andray Domise (30%) which our previous poll recorded four days ago on September 9. Domise's support remains within the margin of error from his previous result, while Rob Ford's advantage over his nephew is smaller than expected, and the total proportion voting for him is smaller than might be expected as well.

Three quarters of past provincial PC voters support Rob Ford (72%) as do one half of provincial Liberal (49%) and NDP voters (45%).

Doug Ford leads in mayoral race

Rob's brother Doug, now running in his place for mayor, takes one half the vote in the home ward of both brothers (49%), to one quarter for John Tory (24%) and less than a fifth for Olivia Chow (17%). Doug Ford supporters almost unanimously support Rob Ford for councillor (92%), while two thirds of John Tory's supporters will vote Domise (61%).

Approval highest for Ford, Domise not far behind

Awareness of Rob Ford is almost universal (96%), and among these, two thirds approve of him (65%). About half as many are aware of Domise (43%), but his approval is common to 6-in-10 of these (58%), and this is comparable to September 9th, both in awareness (40%) and approval (62%).

"Andray Domise had a tough job cut out for him in defeating Mike Ford, with his name recognition. Now he's facing the original Ford, as it were, and his job just got tougher. It is surprising, however, in Rob Ford's home ward, to see him drawing just two thirds approval and vote share," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.