Liberals lead across GTA, Toronto

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Justin Trudeau, MP by Alex Guibord is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence

Liberals lead across GTA, Toronto

Conservatives second, NDP third

TORONTO September 18th, 2015- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1183 voters in Toronto and the surrounding GTA (Durham, York, Peel and Halton Regions), more than 4-in-10 in total will vote Liberal in the coming federal election (41%), while just more than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). Just one quarter will vote NDP (24%) and very few will vote Green (4%) or for other parties (1%).

NDP lags in GTA

Both the Liberals  (43%) and Conservatives (33%) do better in the surrounding GTA than in Toronto (38% and 26%, respectively), while the NDP is more popular in Toronto (31%) than in the suburb (20%).

Liberals ahead in Peel, Halton

In Peel and Halton regions, the Liberals score close to one half the votes (45% and 44%, respectively), while the Conservatives post their best result in York Region (39%). The NDP does relatively poorly across the GTA (Durham - 23%, York - 14%, Halton - 16%, Peel - 24%) and posts their best score in downtown Toronto (40%). The Conservative Party leads only in the former city of North York (50%).

Liberals vote common to oldest females

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the oldest (47%), females (46%), in lower income brackets ($20K to $40K - 48%). The Conservative vote is common to boomers (55 to 64 - 36%), males (35%), in higher income brackets ($80K to $100K - 40%). The NDP vote is strongest among the youngest (37%), males (26%), the least wealthy (33%) and the best educated (post grad - 31%).

Most switchers move to Liberals

Among those who voted Conservative in 2011, a fifth will vote Liberal this time around (18%), while one quarter of past New Democrats will as well (26%). In turn, one fifth of past Liberals are voting NDP this time (22%), but very few voters are switching to the Conservative Party.

New Democrats least committed voters

Whereas two thirds of Conservatives (63%) and Liberals (65%) are strong supporters of their parties, only about one half of those planning to vote NDP say this (49%).

Trudeau with highest favourables

Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of voters (48%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +16. Tom Mulcair has the approval of just fewer (45%) and his net is also +16. Stephen Harper has approval from 3-in-10 (31%), and his net rating is a very negative -30.

Plurality worse off now than 4 years ago

The largest single group, close to 4-in-10, say they are worse off now than they were four years ago, in 2011 (37%), while one third say they are better off (32%). Three-in-ten say their circumstances haven’t changed (29%). Conservatives are much more likely to say they are better off (61%) than are Liberals (21%) or New Democrats (17%), and they are much less likely to say they are worse off (13%) than are supporters of the other two parties (Liberals - 45%, NDP - 50%).

While it is known that Toronto is Liberal heartland, it is surprising to see this poll dispel the myth of the monolithic Conservative vote in the 905 area code. In fact, the outlying areas of the GTA are more Liberal than Conservative. This turn to the Liberals in the 905 may be ascribed to increasing dissatisfaction from ethnic communities on the Conservative views on immigration and, now, the niqab," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.