Liberal lead tightens further

| Filed under: National

Slim majority seen

TORONTO September 7th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1267 Canadian voters, 4-in-10 will vote for the Liberals if the election were held today (40%), stable from the same proportion who said this last month (August 20 - 41%). The Conservatives attract the vote of one third (34%) and this is a very slight increase from last month (32%). This means a 16 point lead in July became a 9 point lead in August and a 6 point lead now. The NDP will take fewer than one fifth (18%), stable from August (17%). Few will vote Bloc Quebecois (4%), Green (3%) or for any other party (1%). Of note, one fifth of those who voted Conservative in 2011 will vote Liberal this time (19%), as will close tom 4-in-10 past New Democrats (39%). The Liberal vote is the "stickiest" in that more past Liberals will vote their party again (84%) than is the case with the Conservatives (76%) or, especially, the NDP (52%).

Slim majority in the cards

If these results are projected to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would take an 8 seat majority of 162 seats (up from 142 last month), to 113 for the Conservatives (stable from 110) and 30 for the New Democrats (well down from 51 last month). The Bloc would take just 2 seats, and the Green Party would retain their leader's single seat.

Harper's, Mulcair's favourables steady, Trudeau's down

Prime Minister Harper has the approval of one third (34%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a negative -21 (up from -25 last month). Thomas Mulcair has the approval of close to 4-in-10 (38%, stable from 37% last month) and his net is a positive +6. Justin Trudeau, on the other hand, has seen his approval decline from one half last month (48%) to less than that today (44%), and his net score has declined as well (from +13 to +5).

This isn't the wheels coming off the bandwagon, but it's clear the Trudeau machine has hit a bit of a rough patch. The Prime Minister is getting a lot of international exposure, and that's hard to counter when you're the leader of the third party, no matter how popular you are," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.