Liberal lead shrinks, NDP rise

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Hung Parliament Seen

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1694 Canadian voters, more than one third (36%) will vote Liberal if the election were held today, compared to 3-in-10 who will vote Conservative (30%). These findings represent a slight decrease in the Liberal vote share since the last time we polled (April 30 - 39%), but stability for the Conservatives (30% then and now). The NDP now command just less than one quarter of the vote (23%) and this represents a slight increase from April (20%). Few vote Bloc Quebecois (6%), Green (5%) or for any other party (1%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (36%), males (34%) and those in the prairies (41%) and Alberta (47%). The Liberal vote is characteristic of Boomers (55 to 64 - 39%), females (38%), in mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 38%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 45%) in the Atlantic provinces (50%) and Ontario (42%). The NDP vote is common to the youngest (26%), low income groups ($20K to $40K - 27%), in Quebec (29%) and BC (26%). Of note, the Liberal vote is the "stickiest", in that more past Liberals will vote their party this time (84%) than will past Conservative (73%) or NDP voters (64%). About one fifth of past Conservative (17%) and NDP voters (22%) will vote Liberal this time.

Hung Parliament Seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would take 111 to the Liberals' 110, for a hung parliament. The NDP would hold the balance of power with 75 seats, while the Bloc would take 11. If Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who is expected to retain her seat, votes with the Liberals, parliament will be exactly hung.

Trudeau's Favourables Slip

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has seen his approval slip slightly from close to half last month (46%) to just more than 4-in-10 today (43%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has declined from +8 to +1 now. Approvals for Prime Minister Harper (33% approve, -27 net) and Tom Mulcair (43% approve, the same as Trudeau, +14 net) have stayed generally stable since last month.

Harper and Trudeau Tied as Best PM

Justin Trudeau (28%) and Stephen Harper (26%) are essentially tied for best Prime Minister, while Tom Mulcair trails at less than a fifth (17%). This represents a slight narrowing of the gap between Trudeau and Harper since last month (30% and 25%, respectively).

Two-thirds Think It's Time for a Change in Ottawa

Two thirds of Canadian voters think it's time for a change of government in Ottawa (68%) and this is a sharp increase since we asked this last year (June 2013 - 61%). Virtually all New Democrats (94%) and Liberals (88%) believe change is needed, but even a substantial minority of Conservative supporters think so too (16%).

“It appears Justin Trudeau's restrictions on Liberal candidates with pro-life views has peeled off a small but important tranche of support for not only him, but, incrementally, his party. I'm not sure that there is a corresponding upside, in that those who support pro-choice views are already in his court," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.