Rob Ford's approval at new low

| Filed under: Toronto

Chow, Tory top voter preference; Rob, Doug Ford, Norm Kelly not so much

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 923 Toronto voters, Olivia Chow and John Tory lead in the polls, Rob Ford falls back and Norm Kelly and Doug Ford fail to impress. At the same time, in his absence from city hall, Rob Ford's approval rating is down sharply to a historic low.

Chow leads, Tory in 2nd

In a five way race in which the mayor contends, along with other leading candidates, Olivia Chow wins with more than a third of the vote (36%) to just more than a quarter for John Tory (27%). One quarter will vote for Rob Ford (24%) and neither Karen Stintz nor David Soknacki contends (3% each).

In the same race, where the mayor is replaced by his brother Doug, outcomes are similar, and Chow wins with more than a third of the vote (37%), Tory places second (26%) and the mayor's brother takes one fifth (20%). Stintz and Soknacki are not in the field (4% each).

In a four way race in which neither of the Ford brothers runs, Olivia Chow takes close to 4-in-10 votes (39%), to just fewer for John Tory (36%), while Stintz (6%) and Soknacki (4%) trail.

In a similar race with the addition of Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly, Chow takes 4-in-10 votes (40%) to one third for Tory (33%) and Kelly (4%), Stintz (5%) and Soknacki (4%) don't contend. In this case, it is clear Kelly's support comes from Tory's voters.

In a straight three way race between the major contenders, Chow takes more than a third (36%) to 3-in-10 for Tory (31%) and just more than a quarter for Rob Ford (27%).

In a similar race where Doug replaces Rob, Chow grows her vote to 4-in-10 (40%), while Tory's stays at 3-in-10 (31%). Doug Ford takes just a fifth (20%).

Ford with lowest approval polled, Tory tops

John Tory enjoys the approval of more than two thirds of Toronto voters (68%), while approval is also high for Olivia Chow (59%). One half approve of David Soknacki, Norm Kelly (50% each) and Karen Stintz (49%). On the other hand, just one third now approve of Rob Ford (32%), the lowest we have ever recorded for the mayor, and even fewer approve of his brother Doug (30%).

Ford Nation down to one quarter of voters

Just one quarter of voters will now vote for Rob Ford in the municipal election (with no other candidates named - 25%) and this is stable since the last time we polled (May 2 - 25%).

Mayor should resign - two thirds

Two thirds of voters think Rob Ford should resign as mayor (63%), and this has not changed since the beginning of the month (63%).

We haven't seen approvals this low for the mayor since he was elected four years ago, and all it took was to for him to disappear for two weeks. In this case, absence didn't make the heart grow fonder. It's clear John Tory benefits from a Ford absence, but if Norm Kelly ran, he would limit that advantage," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.