Mississauga mayor's race stalled in tie

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Few will support Eve Adams

TORONTO AUGUST 24th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among a sample of 696 Mississauga voters, almost exactly equal proportions, just more than a quarter, will vote either for Steve Mahoney (27%) or Bonnie Crombie (26%) for mayor in the municipal election scheduled for October 27. This situation has persisted during the past two waves of polling (July - 31% and 29% respectively, April - 27% and 25%, respectively). About one half are undecided (47%). A preference for Steve Mahoney is common to the oldest (38%), males (32%), Europeans from other than the British Isles (33%) and past provincial PC voters (37%), Crombie's support is characteristic of Boomers (55 to 64 - 31%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 40%), the best educated (post grad - 36%), South Asians (41%), and provincial Liberal voters (33%).

Few will support Eve Adams

When the name of Conservative MP Eve Adams is added to the mix, the results do not change much. Crombie and Mahoney share just less than a quarter of the vote each (24% and 24%), while Adams secures just a tenth (9%). She appeals to the youngest (16%) and mid-income groups ($40K to $60K - 24%). Most of her support comes from those who will vote for Bonnie Crombie in a two person race (14%). She is popular in the northeast part of the city, north of Eglinton and East of Hurontario (23%).

Mahoney and Crombie share high awareness, approval; Eve Adams not so much

One half are aware of Steve Mahoney (52%), and one half are aware of Bonnie Crombie (54%). They both have very high approval levels (72% and 71%, respectively). Eve Adams is known to somewhat fewer (46%), and has the approval of just more than a third (37%). Hazel McCallion's approval remains very high (83%).

Candidates matched on attributes

The minority see both Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney as having the best vision for Mississauga's development (19% and 20% respectively), for the city centre (17% and 16%, respectively) and for Mississauga's waterfront (17% and 14%, respectively).

Low taxes, Hazel's legacy important to voters

One third, the plurality, say that keeping taxes low is the most important issue in the election (33%), followed by those who cite carrying on Hazel McCallion's legacy (22%), building transit (14%) or caring for the most vulnerable (10%). Less important issues include protecting city services and keeping developers in check (6% each) and eliminating waste (4%).

"This race appears to be stuck in a Mexican stand-off. Half the electorate is undecided and the other half remains stubbornly split between the two leading candidates. Even the entrance of a glamourous contender like Eve Adams doesn't break the deadlock," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.