Mammolitti vulnerable
TORONTO, JULY 24th,
2014 - In a
series of random samplings of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ in
selected Toronto municipal wards, most incumbents appear to be safe, with the
exception of Giorgio Mammolitti in Ward 7 York West.
Ward 2 Etobicoke North
Rookie
candidate Mike Ford has 4-in-10 votes in this ward (43%) to about one quarter
for community organizer Andray Domise (24%). Although a number of other
candidates are registered to run in this ward, just one sixth mention
"someone else" (17%), while just fewer have not made up their minds
(15%).
Among
the two thirds aware of him (63%), one half approve of Mike Ford (52%), and his
net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +19.
Just one quarter are aware of Andray Domise (26%) and about half of them
approve of him.
Ward 7 York West
Incumbent
Giorgio Mammolitti (29%) and his competitor, Nick DiNizio (27%) are tied in
this ward, while one tenth opt for Keegan Henry-Mathieu (9%) or someone else
(11%). One quarter are undecided (24%).
Among
the three quarters aware of Mammolitti (77%), just 4-in-10 approve of him (41%)
and his net is a negative -11. DiNizio's awareness is half that of Mammolitti's
(30%), but his approval is close to double (72%), and his net is an extremely
positive +55.
Ward 9 York Centre
Small
sample sizes do not permit detailed analysis of the results from this ward, but
incumbent Maria Augimeri has a comfortable lead within the margin of error over
Gus Cusimano, or anyone else. Three quarters are aware of Augimeri, to about
half for Cusimano, but both have similar approval levels, just below half.
Ward 12 York South-Weston
Incumbent
Frank Di Giorgio (44%) has twice the vote share of Nick Dominelli (21%) in this
ward, and about a quarter will vote for someone else (22%). About a tenth are
undecided (13%).
Among
the two thirds who know Di Giorgio (69%), 4-in-10 approve (41%), and his net is
a positive +11. Just one third have heard of Nick Dominelli (31%), but his
approval (56%) and favourables (+41) are higher than the incumbent's.
Ward 17 Davenport
Incumbent
Cesar Palacio has a 4-in-10 vote share (43%) in this ward, just more than his
chief challenger Alejandra Bravo (33%). One tenth will vote for someone else
(12%) or have not made up their minds (13%).
Eight-in-ten
are aware of Palacio (82%) and, of these, one half approve of him (51%), which
puts his net favourable at a positive +15. Half as many have heard of Alejandra
Bravo (42%), but her approval (66%) and net (+52) are much higher than the
incumbent's.
“In municipal politics, name recognition is everything, which
means incumbency is a huge advantage. There are no party policies, no leaders,
so people vote for the names they've heard of. In Ward 2, that name is Ford, no
matter which one it is," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
