Wards of Toronto: Most council incumbents tested are safe

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Mammolitti vulnerable

TORONTO, JULY 24th, 2014 - In a series of random samplings of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ in selected Toronto municipal wards, most incumbents appear to be safe, with the exception of Giorgio Mammolitti in Ward 7 York West.

Ward 2 Etobicoke North

Rookie candidate Mike Ford has 4-in-10 votes in this ward (43%) to about one quarter for community organizer Andray Domise (24%). Although a number of other candidates are registered to run in this ward, just one sixth mention "someone else" (17%), while just fewer have not made up their minds (15%).

Among the two thirds aware of him (63%), one half approve of Mike Ford (52%), and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +19.  Just one quarter are aware of Andray Domise (26%) and about half of them approve of him.

Ward 7 York West

Incumbent Giorgio Mammolitti (29%) and his competitor, Nick DiNizio (27%) are tied in this ward, while one tenth opt for Keegan Henry-Mathieu (9%) or someone else (11%). One quarter are undecided (24%).

Among the three quarters aware of Mammolitti (77%), just 4-in-10 approve of him (41%) and his net is a negative -11. DiNizio's awareness is half that of Mammolitti's (30%), but his approval is close to double (72%), and his net is an extremely positive +55.

Ward 9 York Centre

Small sample sizes do not permit detailed analysis of the results from this ward, but incumbent Maria Augimeri has a comfortable lead within the margin of error over Gus Cusimano, or anyone else. Three quarters are aware of Augimeri, to about half for Cusimano, but both have similar approval levels, just below half.

Ward 12 York South-Weston

Incumbent Frank Di Giorgio (44%) has twice the vote share of Nick Dominelli (21%) in this ward, and about a quarter will vote for someone else (22%). About a tenth are undecided (13%).

Among the two thirds who know Di Giorgio (69%), 4-in-10 approve (41%), and his net is a positive +11. Just one third have heard of Nick Dominelli (31%), but his approval (56%) and favourables (+41) are higher than the incumbent's.

Ward 17 Davenport

Incumbent Cesar Palacio has a 4-in-10 vote share (43%) in this ward, just more than his chief challenger Alejandra Bravo (33%). One tenth will vote for someone else (12%) or have not made up their minds (13%).

Eight-in-ten are aware of Palacio (82%) and, of these, one half approve of him (51%), which puts his net favourable at a positive +15. Half as many have heard of Alejandra Bravo (42%), but her approval (66%) and net (+52) are much higher than the incumbent's.

In municipal politics, name recognition is everything, which means incumbency is a huge advantage. There are no party policies, no leaders, so people vote for the names they've heard of. In Ward 2, that name is Ford, no matter which one it is," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.