Conservative, Federal votes split
TORONTO MAY 13th,
2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 530 voters
in the new federal riding of Burlington North-Oakville, where there has been
controversy over MP Eve Adams' attempt to become the next Conservative nominee,
the Liberals (45%) and Conservatives (42%) are basically tied in their voting
preferences if the election were held today. In this situation, the NDP does not
compete (8%), nor do the Greens (3%) or any other party (2%). Of note, one
fifth of past Conservative voters will vote Liberal this time around (19%).
Trudeau has highest favourables
Close to one half of voters
in the riding approve of Justin Trudeau (47%), but opinion is polarized, and
his net favourable (approve minus disapprove) is +8. Four-in-ten approve of the
Prime Minister (39%), but his net is a troubling -13. Tom Mulcair draws
approval from a similar proportion (37%), but his net is a positive +4.
“As it turns out, Eve Adams may be in over her head in Burlington North-Oakville, which may actually be a harder riding to win than her previous, now dismembered riding of Mississauga-Brampton South. It appears the siren call of Justin Trudeau is even heard in the 905 bedroom communities the Conservative used to consider their own," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416)