All incumbents safe; jobs and growth key
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 704 voters
in the three northwestern Ontario ridings of Kenora-Rainy River, Thunder
Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay-Superior North on the evening of the afternoon
northern Ontario debate, the Liberals have a comfortable lead across all three
ridings, supported by 4-in-10 who will vote for them in the election June 12
(42%), compared to one third who will vote NDP (32%). Fewer than one quarter
will vote PC (22%), and very few will vote Green (3%) or for other parties
(1%). The Liberal vote is characteristic of the oldest (49%), females (46%),
and the wealthiest (50%). The NDP vote is common to Gen Y (35 to 44 - 40%) and
Gen X (45 to 54 - 41%), while the PC vote is centered on the youngest (30%),
males (27%) and mid-to high income groups ($60K to $100K - 29%). Of note, one
fifth of past NDP voters will support Liberals this time (21%), as will 1-in-7
past PC voters (14%). One-in-seven past Liberals will vote NDP this time (15%).
Kathleen Wynne with highest approvals
More than a third approve of
Kathleen Wynne (36%) but her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is
a negative -10. Andrea Horwath has the approval of 3-in-10 (30%), and her net
is even lower than Wynne's (-16). Tim Hudak brings up the rear with scarcely
one fifth approval (21%) and a truly abysmal net rating of -38.
Wynne seen as best Premier
Kathleen Wynne gathers the
most support as best Premier (34%), about twice that of her competitors (Hudak
and Horwath - 19% each) and a similar proportion who say none of these will do
the job (19%). Both Wynne and Horwath encounter their strongest support among
the youngest (42% and 24%, respectively), while females are especially unlikely
to see Tim Hudak in the role (13%).
Wynne wins debate
Among the one third who saw
or heard all or part of the debate (32%), the consensus is that Kathleen Wynne
won (40%), or no one did (40%). Andrea Horwath is not seen as the victor (20%).
Of note, one fifth of NDP voters thought the Premier won the debate (19%), and
just half think their leader did (51%).
Wynne has best understanding of northern
More than a quarter agree
Kathleen Wynne has the best understanding of northern issues (28%), compared to
less than a quarter who think this of Andrea Horwath (22%) and about half this
proportion who think Tim Hudak fits the description (12%). One quarter say none
of the leaders has the required northern insight (23%).
Jobs and growth most important campaign
issue across the northwest
A third select jobs and
growth as the key issue in the campaign (32%), three times as many who say
government corruption (14%) or eliminating the deficit (10%) are the key
issues. Among Liberals, jobs and growth lead (39%), but transit and
transportation is also important (14%), followed by the Ontario Retirement
Pension Plan (ORPP) and government corruption (10% each). Among New Democrats,
key issues are jobs and growth (30%), followed by government corruption (16%)
and the gas plants controversy (11%). Notably, New Democrats are especially
likely to say something not listed is a key issue (20%). Among PC supporters,
eliminating the deficit (26%), jobs and growth (25%) and government corruption
(20%) are relatively equally important.
Wynne leads for being able to deal with
Kathleen Wynne is seen to be
the best able to promote jobs and growth (30%) compared to her competitors
(Hudak - 19%, Horwath - 18%), for her transit and transportation plans (27%)
compared to the others (Hudak - 12%, Horwath - 13%) and for her plans for the
Ring of Fire (Wynne - 34%, Hudak - 14%, Horwath - 11%). It is only for tackling
government corruption that there is seen to be a balance (Wynne - 21%, Hudak -
22%, Horwath - 19%).
Three quarters say Hudak should have
Fully three quarters of
northwestern Ontario voters agree Tim Hudak should have attended the debate
(76%), and just more than one tenth think he didn't have to (13%). The majority
of PC voters also agree he should have attended (56%). As a result of his
absence, close to half of northwestern Ontario voters will be less likely to
vote PC (44%), and this includes one fifth of current PC supporters (17%) and
as many as 3-in10 past PC voters (29%).
“If these results hold up until election day, Kathleen Wynne
will have improved on the Liberals' fortunes in the Northwest, which has always
been seen as fertile NDP territory. Although the debate was not that widely
watched, it had an impact on those who saw it and most agree the Premier won.
The fact that this kind of exposure is important is reinforced by the strong
majority who think Tim Hudak should have taken part, and the negative effect
his absence has on voting intentions, even among Progressive Conservative
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.