Conservative Majority if an Election Held Now
Trudeau seeing high
levels of disapproval
27th – In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1585 Canadian voters, 4 in 10 (43%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third
(30%) saying they would support the Liberals.
one-sixth (14%) say they would support the NDP, with 1 in 10 (8%) saying they
would support the Green Party.
Few they would support either the BQ (4%) or another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include
those aged 45-54 (48%), male (51%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (48%) or the most
wealthy (51%), the least educated (44%), with some college/university (46%), or
with a college/university degree (43%), and living in Alberta (73%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those
aged 65+ (38%), females (33%), the least wealthy (32%), or $60,000-$80,000
(34%), with a post-graduate degree (36%), and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those living
on the prairies (MB/SK) (18%) or in BC (20%).
Based on these results, we would expect to see a Conservative Majority
government of 207 seats.
The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 100 seats, and the
NDP would elect 23.
The BQ would elect 6, and the Green would elect 2.
Trudeau approval way down
Justin Trudeau sees approval from one-third (33%), and disapproval from
more than half (58%). 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know.
Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -25.
Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from just
under a third (29%). The plurality, however, (40%) say they do not know.
Scheer’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is +2.
Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (24%), and disapproval from
4 in 10 (39%). A similar proportion (39%) say they do not know.
Singh’s net favourable score is -15.
Trudeau and Scheer tied for best PM
Justin Trudeau (24%) and Andrew Scheer (25%) are tied for the lead on
the question of who would make the best PM.
None is third (17%), while Elizabeth May (12%) is fourth.
Jagmeet Singh (8%) is tied with do not know (11%).
Martine Ouellet was selected by few (3%).
“Voters seem to have turned away from the Trudeau Liberals,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Trudeau himself is seeing very
high levels of disapproval right now, which could be contributing to the
considerable sag in Liberal support. Trudeau is far better known than Scheer or
Singh, however, so if the other two leaders can’t raise their profile amongst
voters, winning the next election will
be a far harder task for them.”
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.