Half of Ontarians Now Say they Support the PCs
Ontarians divided about
Patrick Brown's entry into the race
17th - In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 949 Ontario voters, half (49%) say they would support the
PCs if an election were held today, an increase of 8 points in just a few weeks
(Jan 25: 42%).
The Liberals have the support of about
a quarter (24%), similar to the end of January (Jan 25: 27%).
The NDP dip slightly in February to 2
in 10 (19%), which is 4 points from where they were in January (Jan 25: 23%).
The Greens are supported by just under
1 in 10 (7%), similar to January (Jan 25: 6%). Few are supporting another party
The PCs would claim a massive majority
if an election were held today
They would secure 93
seats, with the NDP serving as the official opposition with 21. The Liberals
would serve as the third party with 10.
Christine Elliott leads amongst the
While the general
public doesn't get to vote in the leadership, Christine Elliott would make the
best leader of the PC party according to almost one-quarter (22%) of Ontarians.
One-sixth (16%) say it would be Doug Ford, with just under one-sixth (14%)
saying Caroline Mulroney.
Patrick Brown would
make the best leader according to just under one-sixth (13%) tying him with
Mulroney and Ford for second place amongst the general public.
Few would support
Tanya Granic Allen (5%).
The plurality, about
a third, (31%), said they do not know.
The public is divided on Brown's entry
into the race
Almost 4 in 10 (38%)
say they agree with Patrick Brown's decision to enter the race, while the same
proportion (39%) say they disagree.
(22%) say they do not know.
Amongst those that saw or heard anything
about the debate, Elliott and Ford won
one-quarter (22%) watched some the debate, while 4 in 10 (39%) said they heard
something about it. 4 in 10 (39%) also said they neither saw, nor heard
anything about the debate.
Amongst those that
said they watched or heard something, Christine Elliott (17%) and Doug Ford
(16%) led when Ontarians were asked who won the debate.
(12%) was just back of the leaders, with Tanya Granic Allen (8%) the winner
according to fewer than 1 in 10.
A quarter, the
plurality, (26%), said nobody won the debate.
And about 2 in 10
(21%) said they do not know who won the debate.
Amongst those decided and leaning Elliot
and Mulroney would see the highest support
Half (48%) said they would support the PCs in
the next election if Christine Elliot were the leader, a similar proportion to
Caroline Mulroney (49%).
In this projection, of the four candidates,
it is Mulroney and Elliot that reduce Liberal vote share to its lowest level,
with each pushing the Liberals to about one quarter support. (22%).
Ford and Brown would both receive support
from more than 4 in 10 (43%) but they don't appeal to quite as many leaning
“The constant stream of media attention and
fervor surrounding the leadership race, has done nothing but help the
Progressive Conservatives, with almost half of Ontarians now saying they would
support the PCs if an election were held today,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. "Even Patrick Brown's re-entry into the race
isn't yet showing as a negative, with just as many people saying they agree
with the decision as disagree. Right now it looks as any of the four frontrunners
would secure a majority for the PCs in the next election."
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.