CC Image courtesy of Shaun Merritt: http://bit.ly/2mYabKb
John Tory Almost
Doubles Doug Ford Head-To-Head
activist/journalist Desmond Cole into the mix, it reduces the margin, but Tory
Toronto, November 24rd – In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 843 Toronto voters, amongst those
decided and leaning, two-thirds (66%) say that they would support John Tory
over Doug Ford in a head-to-head matchup, with a third (34%) saying they would
Respondents most likely to say they support John Tory head to head
against Doug Ford include those aged 55-64 (75%), earning $80-100,000 (73%) or
the most wealthy (74%), with a college/university (72%) or post-graduate (73%)
degree, public transit users (72%), living in the former city of Toronto (82%),
and supporting the Liberal (79%) or Green Party (77%).
Respondents most likely to support Doug Ford head to head against
John Tory include those aged 34 and younger (38%) or 45-54 (38%), earning
$20-40,000 (62%), the least educated (51%), living in Etobicoke (48%), and
supporting the PCs (50%).
three-way race between Tory, Ford, and Cole, Tory still wins
In a second scenario, respondents were asked which candidate they
would support in a race between John Tory, Doug Ford, and Desmond Cole, the
activist and journalist.
Amongst those decided and leaning, John Tory (52%) still sees
support of the majority, with Doug Ford (32%) retaining a third of support.
Desmond Cole sees support of one-sixth (16%) of respondents, taking
support primarily from Tory.
Compared to other candidates Forum has pitted against Ford and Tory
in a theoretical race, Cole compares favourably, with Joe Cressy receiving
one-tenth (Sept 9: 11%) support in a three way race, and statistically tied
with Mike Layton’s one-sixth (June 27: 18%)
Respondents most likely to support John Tory in this scenario
include those aged 55-64 (65%), the most wealthy (60%), college/university
(58%) or post-graduate (57%) degree, living in the former city of Toronto (57%)
or North York (60%), and supporting the Liberals (65%).
Respondents most likely to say they support Doug Ford in this
scenario include those aged 34 and younger (37%), earning $20-40,000 (52%), the
least educated (49%), living in Etobicoke (41%) or Scarborough (41%), and
supporting the PCs (49%).
Respondents most likely to say that they support Desmond Cole in
this scenario include those aged 34 and younger (24%), earning $80-100,000
(20%) or the most wealthy (17%), with some college/university (19%) or a
post-graduate degree (19%), living in the former city of Toronto (27%), and
supporting the NDP (28%) or Green Party (31%).
Tory approval remains steady, but
disapproval ticks up
John Tory retains the
approval of more than half (53%), unchanged from September (Sept 9: 53%), but
his disapproval is up by 6 points, with almost a third (30%) of respondents
saying they disapprove of John Tory (Sept 9: 24%).
number of respondents that say they do not know about John Tory’s performance
has dropped as well, down to about one-sixth (16%) from almost a quarter (Sept
“Right now, John Tory
compares very favourably against Doug Ford, and any theoretical third candidate,”
said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “But, generally, when a
third candidate is added, Doug Ford’s support remains mostly static, and it’s
Tory’s numbers that suffer. If enough credible progressive candidates enter the
race, it could seriously affect John Tory’s chances at re-election.”
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.