No Longer a Honeymoon, Now a
Liberals to take over 70% of
house seats if election held today
In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1345 Canadian voters, one half will
vote Liberal if an election were held today (50%), whereas 3-in-10 would vote
Conservative (31%) and just one tenth would vote for the NDP (10%). Few will
vote Green, Bloc Quebecois (4%) each or for any other party (1%). These levels
of support are similar to those noted last month (July 6, Liberals - 52%,
Conservatives - 28%, NDP - 11%).
The Liberals lead
strongly or are tied everywhere in Canada except Alberta. In Atlantic Canada
they lead very strongly (62%) compared to about one sixth for the Conservatives
(15%) or NDP (14%). In Quebec, Liberals take more than half the vote (55%), the
Conservatives (18%) and the Bloc are relatively tied up (15%) and the NDP does
not contend (10%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (52%), just more than
a third will vote Conservative (36%) and less than one tenth will vote NDP
(7%). In the prairies, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied (37% each), and
the NDP pull their highest level of support at one fifth (21%). In Alberta, the
Conservatives lead solidly (58%), while the Liberals command just one quarter
of the vote (27%), and the NDP very little (8%). In BC, half the voters support
the Liberals (53%), just more than a quarter will vote Conservative (27%) and
one tenth will vote NDP (11%).
Among those who voted
NDP in October, 2015, there is an even split between now supporting the
Liberals (44%) or voting their own party (43%).
Liberals to take more than
70% of House seats
If an election were
held today, the Liberals would take 72% of the seats in the House of Commons,
for an unbeatable supermajority of 246 seats, to 81 for the Conservatives, 10
for the NDP (ruling out official party status) and one seat for the Green
Leader approvals steady
Justin Trudeau has the
approval of 6-in-10 voters (60%), and his net favourable score (approve mins
disapprove) is a stellar +30. He has the approval of all Liberals (92%) and
more than half the NDP voters in our sample (55%).
Rona Ambrose has the
approval of 3-in-10 voters (31%), unchanged since last month. Because she has
high level of “don’t knows” (44%), her net score is a relatively neutral +6.
Ambrose has the approval of just over one half of Conservative voters (55%).
Tom Mulcair has the
approval of one third of voters (32%) and his net score is a negative -5. He
has the approval of about two thirds of his voters (64%).
One half see Justin Trudeau
as best PM
One half the voters in
Canada say Justin Trudeau makes the best Prime Minister of all the party
leaders (50%), and “none of these” comes in a distant second (15%). Following
this are Rona Ambrose (12%) and then a tie between Tom Mulcair (8%) and
Elizabeth May (7%).
“We have to dispense
with the idea of a honeymoon romance between Canadians and their new
government; this has become a stable marriage, one in which both parties are
well past the blushing bride and groom stage, and are starting to work together
for a secure future" said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D.
is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.