Liberals close gap
with strong lead in Yellowhead
11th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the
Forum Poll™ among 811 voters in the federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa and 406
voters in the riding of Yellowhead, in which by-elections will be held on
November 17, the Liberals are closing in on the Conservatives in the Ontario
riding, while, in Alberta, they are in distant second place, along with the
In this riding,
the Conservative nominee, Whitby mayor Pat Perkins, has just more than four
tenths of the vote (44%) to 4-in-10 for her Liberal opponent, Celina
Caesar-Chavannes (40%) and this is technically a tie at this sample size. NDP
candidate Trish McAuliffe has a voter preference share of about one tenth
(12%). Caesar-Chavannes has tightened the gap in her favour from one third two
weeks ago (October 27 - 32%), while Perkins' share has not shifted (41% on
October 27). Perkins is favoured by the oldest (48%) and the wealthy ($80K to
$100K - 62%). Caesar-Chavannes has appeal among the wealthiest ($100K to $250K
- 45%). Of note, one half of past NDP voters will support her (52%), as will
close to one fifth of past Conservative voters (17%).
While Pat Perkins'
awareness has remained stable and high (82% on October 27, 86% now), her
approval among these voters is also stable (57% two weeks ago, 60% now). Celina
Caesar-Chavannes, on the other hand, has seen her awareness almost double in
the past two weeks (from 44% to 70%), while her approval has remained high
among those aware of her (69% then, 68% now). Trish McAuliffe has seen her
awareness increase slightly (from 42% to 54%), while her approval has declined
slightly (from 61% to 53%).
candidate, Jim Eglinski, has what amounts to an insurmountable lead in this
long time Conservative riding (62%), compared to the vote share of his two
competitors, Ryan Maguhn of the Liberals (16%) and Eric Rosendahl of the NDP
(12%). One tenth will vote for another party (10%). Eglinski's vote is common
to the oldest (69%), females (68%) and the wealthier ($80K to $100K - 72%). The
Liberal vote is common to Gen X (45 to 54 - 21%), females (19%) and the
wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 24%). The NDP vote is common to the youngest
(20%), males (15%) and the least wealthy (22%). The Conservative vote is
stickiest, in that more Conservatives will vote their party (84%) than will
Liberals (74%) or New Democrats (67%).
awareness levels about twice the other two candidates (Eglinski - 58%, Maguhn -
33%, Rosendahl - 34%), and higher approval among those aware (73%, 59% and 35%,
“We identified an upside for Caesar-Chavannes after the last
poll, and she appears to have made the best of it, boosting her awareness,
which usually leads to an improvement in approval, unless your awareness comes
from the police blotter. In Yellowhead, on the other hand, it’s all blue.
Nothing to see here,” said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416)