12th, 2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1164 Toronto
voters, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote John Tory for mayor (38%), while just
more than 3-in-10 will vote for Doug Ford (31%). This is in contrast to last
week, just after Doug entered the race in the place of his brother Rob, when
the two leaders were still 7 points apart, but at higher levels (41% and 34%,
respectively). What has changed is that Olivia Chow has improved her vote share
from less than one fifth last week (19%) to one quarter today (25%).
second tier candidate Ari Goldkind's name is added to the list, little changes.
Tory continues to take just less than 4-in-10 (38%), Ford exactly 3-in-10 (30%)
and Chow just less than a quarter (24%). Goldkind takes less than one twentieth
of the vote (3%). Few are undecided (4%) or will vote another candidate (1%).
John Tory is a popular second choice
Ford voters would pick John Tory second (42%), as would more than one half of
Chow voters (53%). Few Ford voters (12%) would vote Chow second, nor would few
Chow voters support Ford in second place (10%). When Goldkind's name is tested
in this context, he is the second choice of one tenth or more of John Tory
(12%) or Olivia Chow voters (15%).
Tory leads approval, Rob Ford trails
Tory has the highest approvals among those aware of him (64% of 97%), followed
by Olivia Chow (56% approval among 96% aware). Doug Ford is well-known (96%)
but his approval does not exceed one half (45%). Rob Ford's approval is lowest
at just 4-in-10 (39%). Ari Goldkind, while not well known (19% aware) has
relatively high approval (61%).
"It looks as though the Doug
Caravan has settled a bit, and Tory still leads, but they should both be
concerned about the resurgence of Olivia Chow," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.