NDP on track for majority
Conservatives tumble to third
TORONTO August 25th, 2015 - In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1440 Canadian voters, fully
4-in-10 will now vote NDP in the coming election (40%), ten points ahead of the
second place Liberals, with 3-in-10 votes (30%). The incumbent Conservative
Party is favoured by fewer than a quarter (23%). This stands in stark contrast
to last week, when the NDP had a five point lead over the second place
Conservatives and Liberals (34% to 29% and 28%, respectively). It is clear the
sharp improvement in the NDP’s fortunes has come out of the Conservative vote,
as well as the Green and Bloc Quebecois vote (3% each now, 4% each last week).
NDP leads in Quebec, Ontario,
In seat-rich Ontario where elections are won and lost, the
NDP are now in the lead (36%), followed by the Liberals (33%), while the
Conservatives trail (26%). In Quebec, the NDP is completely dominant (54%),
while the Liberals (19%), Bloc (14%) and Conservatives (11%) have little
traction. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals dominate their customary fief again
(47%) with the NDP second (27%) and the Conservatives third (21%). In the
prairies, the NDP now lead (41%), ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives, who
are tied (28% each). In Alberta, the Conservatives lead (42%), but the NDP is in
a strong second place (32%) and even the Liberals are showing life (22%). The
NDP lead in BC (39%), followed by the Liberals (32%) and, distantly, by the
NDP vote is youngest, Liberal
vote oldest, Conservative gender gap
NDP voters are younger (Under 35 - 49%, 35 to 44 - 46%),
Liberal voters are older (65+ - 33%), Conservative voters are mid-aged (45 to
54 - 32%) and more likely to be male (25%) than female (21%). The Conservative
vote is more likely to be wealthy ($80K to $100K - 27%, $100K to $250K - 26%).
The Conservative vote skews to the least educated (high school or less - 29%),
while the NDP vote skews to the best educated (post grad - 45%).
4-in-10 past Conservatives
not voting for their party
Four-in-ten voters who supported the Conservatives in 2011
will not be voting for the party this time, with either one fifth voting NDP
(19%) or Liberal (19%). Close to 3-in-10 past Liberals will vote NDP this time
(28%). About one fifth of 2011 New Democrats will vote Liberal in 2015 (17%).
Very few Liberals (6%) or, especially, New Democrats (3%) will vote
Conservative in this round.
Conservatives are most
Three quarters of those who will vote Conservative are
strong supporters (73%), whereas just more than one half of Liberal voters
(57%) and New Democrats (56%) are. This is apparent because the Conservative
voter base has shrunk to its absolute floor of the most committed supporters.
NDP headed for historic
If these results are projected to a 338 seat House of
Commons, the NDP would form an historic first-ever majority government with 174
seats, 4 more than required. The Conservatives would form the Opposition with
87 seats, and the Liberals would remain the third party, with 76 seats. The
Green Party would retain their leader’s single seat, and the Bloc Quebecois
would not seat any members.
NDP now clearly expected to
win the election
More than a third believe the election is the NDP’s to win
(36%), compared to just a quarter who think this of the Conservatives (25%).
Fewer than a fifth believe the Liberals can win (17%). This is in contrast to
last week, when the margin in favour of the NDP was modest. This is a lagging
measure, in that it tends to follow levels of voter intention by about two
Mulcair now seen as best PM
One third of voters think Tom Mulcair would make the best
Prime Minister (32%), while fewer than a quarter think this of Justin Trudeau
or Stephen Harper (22% each). Few think Elizabeth May (8%) or Gilles Duceppe
(3%) could do the job, while about a tenth think none is up to it (8%).
Mulcair’s approval up,
Harper’s favourables down
Tom Mulcair has the approval of more than half the voters
(54%) and this is an increase since last week (50%). His net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is a sparkling +27, similar to +26 last week. Justin
Trudeau’s approval is stable at more than 4-in-10 (44%) and his favourable
score is +6 (46% and +9 last week). Stephen Harper has seen his approval
decline even further (from 28% to 26%) and his favourable score has tumbled too
(from -37 to a truly abysmal -41, the lowest we have recorded).
One half think country is
headed in wrong direction
As many as one half of Canadian voters see the country
moving in the wrong direction (50%), and this is especially common to the
youngest (57%), males (57%), the wealthiest (56%), among New Democrats (67%),
but not Conservatives (12%) or past Conservative voters (25%) and among the
best educated (59%). This feeling is least common regionally in Alberta (42%).
One quarter voting strategically
One quarter of voters will vote for a party they believe can
defeat the government (27%), rather than the party they believe in (61%). One
tenth will vote for another reason (9%). Strategic voting for a party that can
defeat the government is most common, not surprisingly, to the surging NDP
(40%), rather than the Liberals (27%). Among 2011 voters, one fifth of the
Conservatives (19%), 3-in-10 Liberals (29%) and one third the past New
Democrats will vote strategically this time (33%).
3-in-10 will vote for
different party in 2015 than they did in 2011
Three-in-ten voters are supporting a different party this
time around (31%), and this is especially the case among those now voting
Liberal and NDP (38%) each. Just a tenth of those now voting Conservative came
from a different party (11%). In total, just one half of voters will vote the
same party in both elections (49%).
One fifth will vote for
One fifth of voters will vote for a change in government as
their prime motivator (18%), while most say they will vote for the party with
the best policies (41%). One sixth say they vote for a leader (15%) and about a
tenth say they vote for the best local candidate (11%). Less than a tenth will
vote for the same party they have always voted for. New Democrats are
especially likely to vote for change (24%), Conservatives are especially likely
to vote for their customary party (13%). Conservatives are the most likely to
say they vote for the best policies (53%) while the Liberals are less likely to
do so (35%).
“This is a historic
day for the NDP, when the poll puts them in reach, not only of their first national
government, but of a majority. The Conservative Party’s support has dwindled to
a previously unimaginable basement level, and the Liberal, almost by reaction,
are coming back from their brush with electoral death. Unfortunately for them,
with the new seat allocation, their newfound popularity will not vault them out
of third party position. What we are seeing here are the cumulative results of
the Duffy trial and it’s corrosive effect on the Conservative brand, Moreover,
all the progressives in Canada are gathering under the New Democrat banner. The
scale of volatility, of voter movement, we are seeing in this campaign, is
truly epic," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.